Asyut Petrol
vs
El Gouna FC
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Asyut Petrol 0–0 El Gouna FC
The model makes it 31% Asyut Petrol, 35% draw, 34% El Gouna FC — fair odds of 3.23, 2.86 and 2.94. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-0 (20%).
Expected goals: Asyut Petrol 0.79, El Gouna FC 0.85.
Both teams to score: 32%. Over 2.5 goals: 23%, under 2.5: 77%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Asyut Petrol and El Gouna FC are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Key facts
- Asyut Petrol are 16th on 5 points from 6 games; El Gouna FC are 19th on 2 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Asyut Petrol have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Abu Qair Semad.
- El Gouna FC have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Al Ittihad Alexandria.
- Last 3 meetings: El Gouna FC 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 4 December 2025, ended El Gouna FC 2–1 Asyut Petrol.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC
Has the model earned this number?
It puts the draw at 35% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 2,969 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC
Asyut Petrol
- W2-1away to Abu Qair Semad13 October 2026
- L0-2Future FC15 September 2026
- L0-1away to Al Ittihad Alexandria7 September 2026
- L0-1National Bank of Egypt31 August 2026
- D0-0away to Smouha SC26 August 2026
El Gouna FC
- L1-2away to Al Ittihad Alexandria13 October 2026
- L1-2Petrojet16 September 2026
- L0-1away to Pyramids FC9 September 2026
- L0-1El Mokawloon2 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah28 August 2026
What these results say
- Asyut Petrol failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Asyut Petrol conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- El Gouna FC did not win any of these 5 matches.
- El Gouna FC conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Asyut Petrol | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 5 |
| 19 | El Gouna FC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 2 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Asyut Petrol vs El Gouna FC
- 4 December 2025El Gouna FC 2–1 Asyut PetrolCup
- 4 May 2023El Gouna FC 1–0 Asyut PetrolSecond League - Group A
- 8 December 2022Asyut Petrol 1–0 El Gouna FCSecond League - Group A
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Asyut Petrol carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.28 for El Gouna FC. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.79 goals for Asyut Petrol and 0.85 for El Gouna FC. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Asyut Petrol rate 0.46 in attack and 1.67 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; El Gouna FC rate 0.48 and 1.53.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives a draw the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Asyut Petrol against 0.85 for El Gouna FC. Asyut Petrol's attack/defence rating is 0.46/1.67 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.53 for El Gouna FC.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Asyut Petrol at home · El Gouna FC away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Asyut Petrol 6, El Gouna FC 6.
Asyut Petrol score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); El Gouna FC have let in 0 there.
El Gouna FC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Asyut Petrol have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Asyut Petrol
- at Al Masry24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- vs Masr10 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- at Al Ahly15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
- vs Enppi22 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 31%
El Gouna FC
- vs Zamalek SC23 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- at National Bank of Egypt8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Abu Qair Semad15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Al Masry23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.