Al Ittihad Alexandria
vs
El Geish
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Geish
The model makes it 44% Al Ittihad Alexandria, 32% draw, 24% El Geish — fair odds of 2.27, 3.13 and 4.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (17%).
Expected goals: Al Ittihad Alexandria 1.20, El Geish 0.74.
Both teams to score: 37%. Over 2.5 goals: 31%, under 2.5: 69%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Al Ittihad Alexandria: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Al Ittihad Alexandria are 5th on 13 points from 6 games; El Geish are 14th on 7 points from 6 games — Premier League.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to El Gouna FC.
- El Geish are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to National Bank of Egypt.
- Last 6 meetings: Al Ittihad Alexandria 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 May 2026, ended Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El Geish.
More Egyptian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Al Ittihad Alexandria at 44% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- W2-1El Gouna FC13 October 2026
- W2-0away to Al Masry15 September 2026
- W1-0Asyut Petrol7 September 2026
- W2-0away to Abu Qair Semad2 September 2026
- L1-3Ceramica Cleopatra28 August 2026
El Geish
- L0-3away to National Bank of Egypt13 October 2026
- L0-1Smouha SC14 September 2026
- D1-1away to Olympic El Qanah7 September 2026
- L0-1Masr1 September 2026
- W3-2away to Petrojet26 August 2026
What these results say
- Al Ittihad Alexandria scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Al Ittihad Alexandria won 4 of these 5 matches.
- El Geish conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- El Geish failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Al Ittihad Alexandria | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 13 |
| 14 | El Geish | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Al Ittihad Alexandria vs El Geish
- 13 May 2026Al Ittihad Alexandria 1–0 El GeishPremier League
- 6 February 2026El Geish 0–1 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 28 April 2025El Geish 1–2 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 30 November 2024Al Ittihad Alexandria 0–1 El GeishPremier League
- 4 July 2024El Geish 0–0 Al Ittihad AlexandriaPremier League
- 14 February 2024Al Ittihad Alexandria 2–2 El GeishPremier League
Leading scorers: Al Ittihad Alexandria and El Geish
Al Ittihad Alexandria
GoalsAssists
- Hossam Hassan30
El Geish
GoalsAssists
- Islam Mohareb21
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Al Ittihad Alexandria carry a model rating of 6.39 against 6.19 for El Geish. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.20 goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria and 0.74 for El Geish. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Al Ittihad Alexandria rate 0.62 in attack and 1.55 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; El Geish rate 0.45 and 1.72.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Al Ittihad Alexandria a 1.3% chance of the title and El Geish 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Al Ittihad Alexandria the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Al Ittihad Alexandria against 0.74 for El Geish. Al Ittihad Alexandria's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.55 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.45/1.72 for El Geish.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Al Ittihad Alexandria at home · El Geish away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Al Ittihad Alexandria 6, El Geish 6.
Al Ittihad Alexandria score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); El Geish have let in 2 there.
El Geish score most often in the 61–75 minute window (2 goals); Al Ittihad Alexandria have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Al Ittihad Alexandria
- at Wadi Degla24 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
- vs Enppi8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Olympic El Qanah15 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Masr24 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 37%
El Geish
- vs Future FC25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Wadi Degla8 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
- at Enppi16 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 27%
- at Zamalek SC23 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.