Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Dynamo Kyiv
The model makes it 64% Shakhtar Donetsk, 21% draw, 15% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 1.56, 4.76 and 6.67. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (10%).
Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.46, Dynamo Kyiv 0.98.
Both teams to score: 57%. Over 2.5 goals: 67%, under 2.5: 33%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,491 settled matches.
One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 39 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Dynamo Kyiv's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Shakhtar Donetsk are 2nd on 24 points from 9 games; Dynamo Kyiv are 3rd on 19 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kolos Kovalivka.
- Dynamo Kyiv have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win at home to Kudrivka.
- Last 6 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 3 May 2026, ended Dynamo Kyiv 1–2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shakhtar Donetsk at 64% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
Premier League
- W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
- W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026
- W3-0LNZ Cherkasy20 September 2026
- W2-0Chornomorets14 September 2026
- W2-1away to Karpaty5 September 2026
Dynamo Kyiv
Premier League
- W3-1Kudrivka23 October 2026
- L1-3away to Polessya18 October 2026
- W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zorya Luhansk19 September 2026
- W3-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 September 2026
What these results say
- Shakhtar Donetsk won every one of these 5 matches.
- Shakhtar Donetsk scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Shakhtar Donetsk had three goals or more.
- Dynamo Kyiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 24 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 9 | +5 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
- 3 May 2026Dynamo Kyiv 1–2 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
- 2 November 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 3–1 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 29 October 2025Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Shakhtar DonetskCup
- 14 May 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–1 Dynamo KyivCup
- 27 April 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 2–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 27 October 2024Dynamo Kyiv 1–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League
Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv
Shakhtar Donetsk
GoalsAssists
- O. Ocheretko20
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.93 against 6.63 for Dynamo Kyiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 2.46 goals for Shakhtar Donetsk and 0.98 for Dynamo Kyiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shakhtar Donetsk rate 1.09 in attack and 0.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Kyiv rate 0.88 and 1.39.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 85.1% chance of the title and Dynamo Kyiv 1.6%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 64%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.46 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.98 for Dynamo Kyiv. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 1.09/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.39 for Dynamo Kyiv.
How the model reaches 64% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings add 5 points and Dynamo Kyiv's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 64%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings49%+5
- Dynamo Kyiv's ratings64%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Dynamo Kyiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 9, Dynamo Kyiv 9.
Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Dynamo Kyiv have let in 1 there.
Dynamo Kyiv score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Shakhtar Donetsk
- at Livyi Bereh21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 58%
- vs Fenerbahçe25 Nov · UEFA Champions Leaguewin 41%
Dynamo Kyiv
- vs Obolon'-Brovar21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 74%
- vs Chornomorets28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 66%
- vs Livyi Bereh2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 59%
- at FC Kharkiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.