Kryvbas KR
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kryvbas KR 1–2 Dynamo Kyiv
The model makes it 31% Kryvbas KR, 24% draw, 45% Dynamo Kyiv — fair odds of 3.23, 4.17 and 2.22. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Kryvbas KR 1.61, Dynamo Kyiv 2.04.
Both teams to score: 70%. Over 2.5 goals: 70%, under 2.5: 30%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Dynamo Kyiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Kryvbas KR are bottom on 5 points from 6 games; Dynamo Kyiv are 3rd on 16 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- Kryvbas KR are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Polessya.
- Dynamo Kyiv are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Karpaty.
- Last 6 meetings: Dynamo Kyiv 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended Kryvbas KR 5–6 Dynamo Kyiv.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dynamo Kyiv at 45% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv
Kryvbas KR
- L0-1away to Polessya18 September 2026
- D2-2Kolos Kovalivka5 September 2026
- L0-1away to Chornomorets30 August 2026
- D1-1Livyi Bereh15 August 2026
- W3-1away to Zorya Luhansk9 August 2026
Dynamo Kyiv
- W1-0Karpaty11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Zorya Luhansk19 September 2026
- W3-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi14 September 2026
- D0-0LNZ Cherkasy6 September 2026
- L0-3away to Bukovyna31 August 2026
What these results say
- Kryvbas KR conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kryvbas KR failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Dynamo Kyiv kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Kryvbas KR | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 10 | -3 | 5 |
| 3 | Dynamo Kyiv | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kryvbas KR
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 11% today
Dynamo Kyiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 73% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Kryvbas KR vs Dynamo Kyiv
- 26 April 2026Kryvbas KR 5–6 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 26 October 2025Dynamo Kyiv 4–0 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 12 April 2025Kryvbas KR 0–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
- 6 October 2024Dynamo Kyiv 2–1 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 18 May 2024Dynamo Kyiv 3–1 Kryvbas KRPremier League
- 12 November 2023Kryvbas KR 0–2 Dynamo KyivPremier League
Leading scorers: Kryvbas KR and Dynamo Kyiv
Kryvbas KR
GoalsAssists
- A. Herbert12
- Y. Shevchenko11
- R. Nawi11
Dynamo Kyiv
GoalsAssists
- M. Ponomarenko20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Kryvbas KR carry a model rating of 6.4 against 6.66 for Dynamo Kyiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.61 goals for Kryvbas KR and 2.04 for Dynamo Kyiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Kryvbas KR rate 0.76 in attack and 1.92 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dynamo Kyiv rate 0.88 and 1.30.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kryvbas KR a 0% chance of the title and Dynamo Kyiv 6.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dynamo Kyiv the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Kryvbas KR against 2.04 for Dynamo Kyiv. Kryvbas KR's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.88/1.3 for Dynamo Kyiv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Kryvbas KR at home · Dynamo Kyiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kryvbas KR 6, Dynamo Kyiv 7.
Kryvbas KR score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Dynamo Kyiv have let in 1 there.
Dynamo Kyiv score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Kryvbas KR have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Kryvbas KR
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 35%
- vs Kudrivka21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 60%
- vs FC Kharkiv25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 30%
Dynamo Kyiv
- at Shakhtar Donetsk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Obolon'-Brovar21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 74%
- vs Chornomorets28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 67%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.