LNZ Cherkasy
vs
FC Kharkiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 FC Kharkiv
The model makes it 32% LNZ Cherkasy, 32% draw, 36% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 3.13, 3.13 and 2.78. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: LNZ Cherkasy 0.97, FC Kharkiv 1.06.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Edge to FC Kharkiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- LNZ Cherkasy are 7th on 11 points from 8 games; FC Kharkiv are 4th on 15 points from 7 games — Premier League.
- LNZ Cherkasy have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Kudrivka.
- FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Chornomorets.
- Last 4 meetings: level at 1 win each, 2 draws; the most recent, 26 April 2026, ended LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 FC Kharkiv.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv
Has the model earned this number?
It puts FC Kharkiv at 36% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv
LNZ Cherkasy
- W2-1Kudrivka11 October 2026
- L0-3away to Shakhtar Donetsk20 September 2026
- W3-1Obolon'-Brovar12 September 2026
- D0-0away to Dynamo Kyiv6 September 2026
- L0-1Veres Rivne30 August 2026
FC Kharkiv
- W2-1away to Chornomorets10 October 2026
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
- W3-0away to Zorya Luhansk31 August 2026
- L0-1Shakhtar Donetsk16 August 2026
What these results say
- LNZ Cherkasy conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv won 4 of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | LNZ Cherkasy | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 11 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 5 | +9 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
LNZ Cherkasy
Chance to finish in the top four · 8% today
FC Kharkiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 67% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: LNZ Cherkasy vs FC Kharkiv
- 26 April 2026LNZ Cherkasy 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
- 25 October 2025FC Kharkiv 0–1 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 8 March 2024FC Kharkiv 1–1 LNZ CherkasyPremier League
- 26 August 2023LNZ Cherkasy 0–1 FC KharkivPremier League
Leading scorers: LNZ Cherkasy and FC Kharkiv
LNZ Cherkasy
GoalsAssists
- Talles20
FC Kharkiv
GoalsAssists
- B. Zabërgja21
- P. Itodo21
- C. Paraco20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
LNZ Cherkasy carry a model rating of 6.5 against 6.68 for FC Kharkiv. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 0.97 goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.06 for FC Kharkiv. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
LNZ Cherkasy rate 0.57 in attack and 1.19 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FC Kharkiv rate 0.74 and 1.05.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives LNZ Cherkasy a 0% chance of the title and FC Kharkiv 4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 36%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.97 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy against 1.06 for FC Kharkiv. LNZ Cherkasy's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.19 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.74/1.05 for FC Kharkiv.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
LNZ Cherkasy at home · FC Kharkiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: LNZ Cherkasy 8, FC Kharkiv 7.
LNZ Cherkasy score most often in the 0–15 minute window (3 goals); FC Kharkiv have let in 1 there.
FC Kharkiv score most often in the 0–15 minute window (4 goals); LNZ Cherkasy have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
LNZ Cherkasy
- at Zorya Luhansk7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 31%
- vs Polessya21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 37%
FC Kharkiv
- vs Karpaty7 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
- at Kolos Kovalivka21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 41%
- at Kryvbas KR25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.