Obolon'-Brovar
vs
Livyi Bereh
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Obolon'-Brovar 0–1 Livyi Bereh
The model makes it 31% Obolon'-Brovar, 31% draw, 38% Livyi Bereh — fair odds of 3.23, 3.23 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Obolon'-Brovar 0.99, Livyi Bereh 1.16.
Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 36%, under 2.5: 64%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 961 settled matches.
Edge to Livyi Bereh: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Obolon'-Brovar's rating is built from 38 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Livyi Bereh's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Obolon'-Brovar are 13th on 7 points from 9 games; Livyi Bereh are 12th on 7 points from 8 games — Premier League.
- Obolon'-Brovar have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Polessya.
- Livyi Bereh have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to FC Kharkiv.
- Last 6 meetings: Obolon'-Brovar 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 21 July 2026, ended Livyi Bereh 2–2 Obolon'-Brovar.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Livyi Bereh at 38% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh
Obolon'-Brovar
Premier League
- L0-3away to Polessya23 October 2026
- W2-0Veres Rivne16 October 2026
- D1-1away to Chornomorets18 September 2026
- L1-3away to LNZ Cherkasy12 September 2026
- L0-5away to FC Kharkiv5 September 2026
Livyi Bereh
Premier League
- L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
- L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
- W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Polessya13 September 2026
- D0-0away to Chornomorets4 September 2026
What these results say
- Obolon'-Brovar failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Obolon'-Brovar conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Obolon'-Brovar | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 15 | -11 | 7 |
| 12 | Livyi Bereh | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Obolon'-Brovar vs Livyi Bereh
- 21 July 2026Livyi Bereh 2–2 Obolon'-BrovarFriendlies Clubs
- 23 May 2025Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 30 November 2024Livyi Bereh 1–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 2 June 2024Livyi Bereh 1–1 Obolon'-BrovarPremier League
- 29 May 2024Obolon'-Brovar 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
- 12 July 2023Obolon'-Brovar 0–2 Livyi BerehFriendlies Clubs
Leading scorers: Obolon'-Brovar and Livyi Bereh
Obolon'-Brovar
No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Livyi Bereh
GoalsAssists
- N. Vorobchak20
- V. Voloshyn20
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Obolon'-Brovar carry a model rating of 6.11 against 6.35 for Livyi Bereh. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 0.99 goals for Obolon'-Brovar and 1.16 for Livyi Bereh. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Obolon'-Brovar rate 0.44 in attack and 1.96 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Livyi Bereh rate 0.49 and 1.38.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,209 correct results out of 4,585 settled predictions (48%), with 455 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Obolon'-Brovar against 1.16 for Livyi Bereh. Obolon'-Brovar's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.96 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.49/1.38 for Livyi Bereh.
How the model reaches 38% for Livyi Bereh to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livyi Bereh to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Obolon'-Brovar's ratings add 39 points and Livyi Bereh's ratings take away 30 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Obolon'-Brovar's ratings68%+39
- Livyi Bereh's ratings38%−30
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Obolon'-Brovar at home · Livyi Bereh away
League matches only, Premier League, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Obolon'-Brovar 9, Livyi Bereh 8.
Obolon'-Brovar score most often in the 76–90 minute window (2 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 0 there.
Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (3 goals); Obolon'-Brovar have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Obolon'-Brovar
- at Dynamo Kyiv21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 9%
- vs Zorya Luhansk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 28%
- vs Karpaty5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 21%
- vs Epitsentr Dunayivtsi12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 34%
Livyi Bereh
- vs Shakhtar Donetsk21 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 17%
- vs Kolos Kovalivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 36%
- at Dynamo Kyiv2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.