Newport County
vs
Chesterfield
League Two prediction
Our model says: Newport County 1–2 Chesterfield
The model makes it 32% Newport County, 27% draw, 41% Chesterfield — fair odds of 3.13, 3.70 and 2.44. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Newport County 1.32, Chesterfield 1.54.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Edge to Chesterfield: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Key facts
- Newport County are 12th on 13 points from 10 games; Chesterfield are 7th on 15 points from 10 games — League Two.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Colchester.
- Chesterfield have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Crawley Town.
- Last 6 meetings: Chesterfield 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 January 2026, ended Newport County 2–1 Chesterfield.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Newport County vs Chesterfield
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Chesterfield at 41% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Newport County vs Chesterfield
Newport County
- W1-0Colchester10 October 2026
- D0-0away to Gillingham3 October 2026
- W2-1Grimsby26 September 2026
- D0-0away to Accrington Stanley19 September 2026
- D1-1Fleetwood Town12 September 2026
Chesterfield
- D2-2away to Crawley Town10 October 2026
- W4-2Tranmere3 October 2026
- L1-2away to Cheltenham26 September 2026
- W2-0York19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Oldham12 September 2026
What these results say
- Newport County went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Newport County had two goals or fewer.
- Chesterfield scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Chesterfield conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Chesterfield had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Newport County | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 13 |
| 7 | Chesterfield | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 14 | +3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Newport County vs Chesterfield
- 24 January 2026Newport County 2–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 27 September 2025Chesterfield 4–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 8 March 2025Chesterfield 2–1 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 18 October 2024Newport County 0–3 ChesterfieldLeague Two
- 1 May 2018Chesterfield 1–0 Newport CountyLeague Two
- 26 August 2017Newport County 4–1 ChesterfieldLeague Two
Leading scorers: Newport County and Chesterfield
Newport County
GoalsAssists
- S. Gwengwe50
Chesterfield
GoalsAssists
- L. Marsh51
- L. Bonis42
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Newport County carry a model rating of 6.06 against 6.23 for Chesterfield. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.32 goals for Newport County and 1.54 for Chesterfield. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Newport County rate 0.46 in attack and 2.24 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Chesterfield rate 0.57 and 1.97.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Newport County a 0.3% chance of the title and Chesterfield 7.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Chesterfield the highest probability at 41%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Newport County against 1.54 for Chesterfield. Newport County's attack/defence rating is 0.46/2.24 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.57/1.97 for Chesterfield.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Newport County at home · Chesterfield away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Newport County 10, Chesterfield 10.
Newport County score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); Chesterfield have let in 3 there.
Chesterfield score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Newport County have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
Newport County
- at Crewe14 Nov · League Twowin 24%
- vs Swindon Town21 Nov · League Twowin 40%
Chesterfield
- at Bristol Rovers14 Nov · League Twowin 38%
- vs Shrewsbury21 Nov · League Twowin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.