SV Elversberg
vs
FSV Mainz 05
Bundesliga prediction
Our model says: SV Elversberg 2–1 FSV Mainz 05
The model makes it 43% SV Elversberg, 25% draw, 32% FSV Mainz 05 — fair odds of 2.33, 4.00 and 3.13. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SV Elversberg 1.85, FSV Mainz 05 1.55.
Both teams to score: 67%. Over 2.5 goals: 66%, under 2.5: 34%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Key facts
- SV Elversberg are 9th on 7 points from 5 games; FSV Mainz 05 are 8th on 7 points from 5 games — Bundesliga.
- SV Elversberg are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union Berlin.
- FSV Mainz 05 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-4 defeat at home to Bayer Leverkusen.
- Last 2 meetings: FSV Mainz 05 1 win to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 12 August 2023, ended SV Elversberg 0–1 FSV Mainz 05.
More Bundesliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
Has the model earned this number?
It puts SV Elversberg at 43% here. Across 3,801 settled matches (as of 16 October 2026), 1,771 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
SV Elversberg
- L0-1away to Union Berlin10 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Schalke 0420 September 2026
- L1-2Bayern München13 September 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach5 September 2026
- W3-2Bayer Leverkusen29 August 2026
FSV Mainz 05
- L3-4Bayer Leverkusen10 October 2026
- W4-3away to Borussia Mönchengladbach19 September 2026
- L1-3Eintracht Frankfurt12 September 2026
- W5-0away to Hamburger SV6 September 2026
- D0-0SC Paderborn 0729 August 2026
What these results say
- SV Elversberg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- FSV Mainz 05 scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FSV Mainz 05 had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Bundesliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | SV Elversberg | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 7 |
| 8 | FSV Mainz 05 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | +3 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SV Elversberg vs FSV Mainz 05
- 12 August 2023SV Elversberg 0–1 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
- 8 August 2021SV Elversberg 2–2 FSV Mainz 05DFB Pokal
Leading scorers: SV Elversberg and FSV Mainz 05
SV Elversberg
GoalsAssists
- M. Krattenmacher30
FSV Mainz 05
GoalsAssists
- P. Tietz40
- S. Becker23
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
SV Elversberg carry a model rating of 6.84 against 6.84 for FSV Mainz 05. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.85 goals for SV Elversberg and 1.55 for FSV Mainz 05. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
SV Elversberg rate 0.95 in attack and 0.97 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; FSV Mainz 05 rate 1.03 and 1.06.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour FSV Mainz 05, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,821 correct results out of 3,803 settled predictions (48%), with 383 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SV Elversberg the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.85 expected goals for SV Elversberg against 1.55 for FSV Mainz 05. SV Elversberg's attack/defence rating is 0.95/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.03/1.06 for FSV Mainz 05.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
SV Elversberg at home · FSV Mainz 05 away
League matches only, Bundesliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
SV ElversbergFSV Mainz 05
SV Elversberg are 8th after 5 Bundesliga matches (between 2nd and 8th so far); FSV Mainz 05 are 7th after 5 (between 4th and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Bundesliga matches this season: SV Elversberg 5, FSV Mainz 05 5.
FSV Mainz 05 score most often in the 76–90 minute window (5 goals); SV Elversberg have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SV Elversberg
- at Borussia Dortmund7 Nov · Bundesligawin 16%
- vs SC Freiburg21 Nov · Bundesligawin 32%
- at 1. FC Köln28 Nov · Bundesligawin 41%
FSV Mainz 05
- vs Bayern München7 Nov · Bundesligawin 17%
- at FC Augsburg22 Nov · Bundesligawin 30%
- vs Union Berlin28 Nov · Bundesligawin 55%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.