Regular Season - 13 · 20 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh Premier League prediction

Arena Livyi Bereg, Kyiv

Our model says: Shakhtar Donetsk 2–0 Livyi Bereh

The model makes it 70% Shakhtar Donetsk, 21% draw, 9% Livyi Bereh — fair odds of 1.43, 4.76 and 11.11.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Shakhtar Donetsk 2.19, Livyi Bereh 0.51.

Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.

One-sided: Shakhtar Donetsk are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Shakhtar Donetsk's rating is built from 42 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Livyi Bereh's from 12, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Shakhtar Donetsk are top on 29 points from 12 games; Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 10 games — Premier League.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Dynamo Kyiv.
  • Livyi Bereh are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Obolon'-Brovar.
  • Last 2 meetings: Shakhtar Donetsk 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 February 2025, ended Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi Bereh.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh

36%
Both teams to score
51%
Over 2.5 goals
49%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Shakhtar Donetsk win Draw Livyi Bereh win
  1. 2–016%
  2. 1–014%
  3. 3–012%
  4. 2–18%
  5. 1–18%
  6. 0–07%
  7. 4–06%

Scores read Shakhtar Donetsk first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Shakhtar Donetsk at 70%: of 503 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.6% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh

Shakhtar Donetsk

Premier League

  • D0-0Dynamo Kyiv8 November 2026
  • W2-0Obolon'-Brovar30 October 2026
  • D0-0Zorya Luhansk24 October 2026
  • W2-1Kolos Kovalivka17 October 2026
  • W3-0away to Veres Rivne9 October 2026

Livyi Bereh

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
  • D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
  • L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Shakhtar Donetsk went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
  • Shakhtar Donetsk kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livyi Bereh scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
1Shakhtar Donetsk12921225+1729
12Livyi Bereh1016379-29

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Shakhtar Donetsk

Chance to finish top of the regular season · 69% today

Win 72%
Draw 64%
Defeat 56%

Livyi Bereh

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 19% today

Win 11%
Draw 17%
Defeat 20%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Livyi Bereh

  • 24 February 2025Shakhtar Donetsk 1–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
  • 18 August 2024Livyi Bereh 0–1 Shakhtar DonetskPremier League

Leading scorers: Shakhtar Donetsk and Livyi Bereh

Shakhtar Donetsk

GoalsAssists

  • Alisson Santana32
  • Kauã Elias30

Livyi Bereh

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shakhtar Donetsk a 69.3% chance of the title and Livyi Bereh 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Shakhtar Donetsk Livyi Bereh
0.99 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
0.89 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.36
2.19 Model expected goals (this match) 0.51

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Shakhtar Donetsk the highest probability at 70%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk against 0.51 for Livyi Bereh. Shakhtar Donetsk's attack/defence rating is 0.99/0.89 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.36 for Livyi Bereh.

Shakhtar Donetsk carry a model rating of 6.91 against 6.35 for Livyi Bereh.

How the model reaches 70% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Shakhtar Donetsk to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings add 16 points and Livyi Bereh's ratings add 13 points, which lands on the published 70%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Shakhtar Donetsk's ratings57%+16
  5. Livyi Bereh's ratings70%+13

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Shakhtar DonetskLivyi Bereh
12Matches10
9W 2D 1LRecord1W 6D 3L
22 1.8 per gameGoals scored7 0.7 per game
5 0.4 per gameGoals conceded9 0.9 per game
8 of 12Clean sheets4 of 10
3 of 12Failed to score4 of 10
1 of 1Penalties scored–
15 1.3 per gameYellow cards14 1.4 per game
1Red cards0
4-3-3 3×Usual shape4-2-3-1 6×

Shakhtar Donetsk at home · Livyi Bereh away

8Played6
5W 2D 1LRecord1W 3D 2L
14–4Goals for – against5–5
5 of 8Clean sheets2 of 6

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Shakhtar Donetsk 12, Livyi Bereh 10.

Shakhtar Donetsk scored 314365
Livyi Bereh conceded 012220

Shakhtar Donetsk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 2 there.

Livyi Bereh scored 121041
Shakhtar Donetsk conceded 102011

Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Shakhtar Donetsk have let in 1 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Shakhtar Donetsk

Livyi Bereh

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.