Baranovichi
vs
Belshina
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Baranovichi 2–1 Belshina
The model makes it 51% Baranovichi, 25% draw, 24% Belshina — fair odds of 1.96, 4.00 and 4.17.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Baranovichi 1.94, Belshina 1.19.
Both teams to score: 60%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Baranovichi's rating is built from 28 Belarusian Premier League matches and Belshina's from 30, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Baranovichi are 11th on 31 points from 28 games; Belshina are 13th on 24 points from 28 games — Premier League.
- Baranovichi have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to Slavia Mozyr.
- Belshina are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to FC Isloch Minsk R..
- Last 6 meetings: Belshina 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 5 July 2026, ended Belshina 1–1 Baranovichi.
More Belarusian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Baranovichi vs Belshina
Has the model earned this number?
Baranovichi at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Baranovichi vs Belshina
Baranovichi
Premier League
- L0-2away to Slavia Mozyr8 November 2026
- W3-0Naftan31 October 2026
- W3-1away to FC Minsk23 October 2026
- L0-1FC Vitebsk17 October 2026
- L0-3away to Neman10 October 2026
Belshina
Premier League
- L2-3FC Isloch Minsk R.7 November 2026
- L0-3away to Torpedo Zhodino1 November 2026
- L2-3Dinamo Minsk28 October 2026
- W1-0away to Bate Borisov24 October 2026
- L2-4Slavia Mozyr19 October 2026
What these results say
- Baranovichi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Belshina conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Belarus Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Baranovichi | 28 | 8 | 7 | 13 | 30 | 45 | -15 | 31 |
| 13 | Belshina | 28 | 6 | 6 | 16 | 30 | 53 | -23 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Belshina
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 75% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Baranovichi vs Belshina
- 5 July 2026Belshina 1–1 BaranovichiPremier League
- 9 August 2025Baranovichi 2–1 Belshina1. Division
- 14 May 2025Belshina 2–1 Baranovichi1. Division
- 29 September 2024Baranovichi 0–4 Belshina1. Division
- 2 June 2024Belshina 5–0 Baranovichi1. Division
- 18 February 2023Baranovichi 1–1 BelshinaFriendlies Clubs
How the call on Baranovichi v Belshina has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 53% / 24% / 23% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 51% / 25% / 24%: the biggest move is Baranovichi's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Baranovichi win51%▼ −2
- Draw25%▲ +1
- Belshina win24%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Baranovichi the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Baranovichi against 1.19 for Belshina. Baranovichi's attack/defence rating is 0.44/2.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.46/2.71 for Belshina.
How the model reaches 51% for Baranovichi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Baranovichi to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Baranovichi's ratings add 2 points and Belshina's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- Baranovichi's ratings47%+2
- Belshina's ratings51%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Baranovichi at home · Belshina away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Baranovichi 28, Belshina 28.
Baranovichi score most often in the 31–45 minute window (9 goals); Belshina have let in 8 there.
Belshina score most often in the 31–45 minute window (8 goals); Baranovichi have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
Next match, by difficulty
Baranovichi
- at Torpedo Zhodino28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 26%
Belshina
- vs ML Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 14%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.