Regular Season - 29 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Neman Premier League prediction

Haradski Stadium, Barysaw

Our model says: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–1 Neman

The model makes it 30% Arsenal Dzerzhinsk, 30% draw, 40% Neman — fair odds of 3.33, 3.33 and 2.50.

Most likely scoreline: 0-1.

Expected goals: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 1.05, Neman 1.28.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Edge to Neman: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's rating is built from 58 Belarusian Premier League matches and Neman's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk are 12th on 27 points from 28 games; Neman are 5th on 49 points from 28 games — Premier League.
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to FC Gomel.
  • Neman have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to FC Dnepr Mogilev.
  • Last 6 meetings: Neman 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 26 July 2026, ended Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–3 Neman.

More Belarusian Premier League predictions

All Belarusian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Neman

48%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk win Draw Neman win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 0–112%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 1–010%
  5. 1–28%
  6. 0–28%
  7. 2–17%

Scores read Arsenal Dzerzhinsk first; the other scorelines share the remaining 31%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Neman at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Neman

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Premier League

  • L0-2away to FC Gomel6 November 2026
  • W1-0Bate Borisov30 October 2026
  • D0-0FC Dnepr Mogilev25 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Dinamo Minsk19 October 2026
  • L0-1Dinamo Brest9 October 2026

Neman

Premier League

  • W2-1FC Dnepr Mogilev8 November 2026
  • W1-0away to Dinamo Minsk1 November 2026
  • L1-4Dinamo Brest25 October 2026
  • L0-1away to ML Vitebsk18 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Bate Borisov14 October 2026

What these results say

  • Every one of these 5 matches for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk had two goals or fewer.
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Arsenal Dzerzhinsk failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Neman scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Belarus Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Arsenal Dzerzhinsk2869132546-2127
5Neman2815493526+949

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

Chance to finish in the bottom three · 5% today

Win 0%
Draw 1%
Defeat 10%

Neman

Chance to finish in the top four · 10% today

Win 21%
Draw 3%
Defeat <1%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk vs Neman

  • 26 July 2026Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 2–3 NemanCoppa
  • 4 July 2026Neman 0–1 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 10 October 2025Neman 1–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
  • 19 April 2025Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–3 NemanPremier League
  • 6 October 2024Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 0–4 NemanPremier League
  • 16 May 2024Neman 1–0 Arsenal DzerzhinskPremier League
Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk Neman
0.42 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.5
2.12 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.54
1.05 Model expected goals (this match) 1.28

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Neman the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Arsenal Dzerzhinsk against 1.28 for Neman. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's attack/defence rating is 0.42/2.12 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/1.54 for Neman.

How the model reaches 40% for Neman to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Neman to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings add 6 points and Neman's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage29%−7
  3. Both sides at this match's level28%−1
  4. Arsenal Dzerzhinsk's ratings34%+6
  5. Neman's ratings40%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Arsenal DzerzhinskNeman
28Matches28
6W 9D 13LRecord15W 4D 9L
25 0.9 per gameGoals scored35 1.3 per game
46 1.6 per gameGoals conceded26 0.9 per game
7 of 28Clean sheets10 of 28
11 of 28Failed to score8 of 28
2 of 2Penalties scored2 of 2
49 1.8 per gameYellow cards34 1.2 per game
3Red cards2
4-3-3 14×Usual shape4-2-3-1 16×

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk at home · Neman away

14Played14
3W 4D 7LRecord7W 3D 4L
12–20Goals for – against16–11
5 of 14Clean sheets5 of 14

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Arsenal Dzerzhinsk 28, Neman 28.

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk scored 293444
Neman conceded 746217

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk score most often in the 16–30 minute window (9 goals); Neman have let in 4 there.

Neman scored 3635611
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk conceded 35931312

Neman score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Arsenal Dzerzhinsk have let in 12 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

Next match, by difficulty

Arsenal Dzerzhinsk

  • at FC Vitebsk28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 22%

Neman

  • vs FC Gomel28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.