Regular Season - 14 · 27 November 2026, 11:00 UTC

Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka Premier League prediction

Arena Livyi Bereg, Kyiv

Our model says: Livyi Bereh 1–0 Kolos Kovalivka

The model makes it 37% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 32% Kolos Kovalivka — fair odds of 2.70, 3.23 and 3.13.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.15, Kolos Kovalivka 1.02.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 37%, under 2.5: 63%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,308 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Livyi Bereh's rating is built from 12 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Kolos Kovalivka's from 40, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 10 games; Kolos Kovalivka are 8th on 12 points from 10 games — Premier League.
  • Livyi Bereh are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Obolon'-Brovar.
  • Kolos Kovalivka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bukovyna.
  • Last 4 meetings: Kolos Kovalivka 2 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 13 April 2025, ended Livyi Bereh 0–2 Kolos Kovalivka.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

44%
Both teams to score
37%
Over 2.5 goals
63%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Livyi Bereh win Draw Kolos Kovalivka win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–013%
  3. 0–012%
  4. 0–111%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 2–08%
  7. 1–27%

Scores read Livyi Bereh first; the other scorelines share the remaining 28%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Livyi Bereh at 37%: of 4,766 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

Livyi Bereh

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
  • D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
  • L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026

Kolos Kovalivka

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Bukovyna8 November 2026
  • W2-0away to Veres Rivne23 October 2026
  • L1-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk17 October 2026
  • W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
  • W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026

What these results say

  • Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livyi Bereh scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Kolos Kovalivka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
  • Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kolos Kovalivka.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Livyi Bereh1016379-29
8Kolos Kovalivka103341314-112

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Livyi Bereh

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 19% today

Win 12%
Draw 20%
Defeat 25%

Kolos Kovalivka

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today

Win 2%
Draw 4%
Defeat 6%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Kolos Kovalivka

  • 13 April 2025Livyi Bereh 0–2 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
  • 5 October 2024Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Livyi BerehPremier League
  • 7 September 2024Livyi Bereh 1–1 Kolos KovalivkaFriendlies Clubs
  • 23 June 2024Kolos Kovalivka 3–2 Livyi BerehFriendlies Clubs

Leading scorers: Livyi Bereh and Kolos Kovalivka

Livyi Bereh

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 7 league goals as a side.

Kolos Kovalivka

GoalsAssists

  • D. Ndukwe40
  • O. Demchenko31

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Kolos Kovalivka (8th, with Livyi Bereh 12th), while our numbers lean to Livyi Bereh. Livyi Bereh rate 0.48 in attack and 1.36 in defence, Kolos Kovalivka 0.62 and 1.47 (lower is better in defence), so Livyi Bereh have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 3-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Livyi Bereh Kolos Kovalivka
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.62
1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.47
1.15 Model expected goals (this match) 1.02

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 1.02 for Kolos Kovalivka. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.62/1.47 for Kolos Kovalivka.

Livyi Bereh carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.42 for Kolos Kovalivka. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Livyi Bereh to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livyi Bereh to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Livyi Bereh's ratings take away 2 points and Kolos Kovalivka's ratings take away 2 points, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level41%−3
  4. Livyi Bereh's ratings39%−2
  5. Kolos Kovalivka's ratings37%−2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Livyi BerehKolos Kovalivka
10Matches10
1W 6D 3LRecord3W 3D 4L
7 0.7 per gameGoals scored13 1.3 per game
9 0.9 per gameGoals conceded14 1.4 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets2 of 10
4 of 10Failed to score3 of 10
–Penalties scored1 of 1
14 1.4 per gameYellow cards29 2.9 per game
0Red cards3
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-1-4-1 4×

Livyi Bereh at home · Kolos Kovalivka away

4Played7
0W 3D 1LRecord2W 2D 3L
2–4Goals for – against10–11
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 7

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 10, Kolos Kovalivka 10.

Livyi Bereh scored 121041
Kolos Kovalivka conceded 242141

Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Kolos Kovalivka have let in 4 there.

Kolos Kovalivka scored 133204
Livyi Bereh conceded 012220

Kolos Kovalivka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Livyi Bereh

  • at Dynamo Kyiv2 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 15%
  • at Veres Rivne5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 36%
  • vs Dynamo Kyiv12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 26%

Kolos Kovalivka

  • at LNZ Cherkasy5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
  • vs Polessya9 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 28%
  • vs Zorya Luhansk12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.