Kolos Kovalivka
vs
FC Kharkiv
Premier League prediction
Our model says: Kolos Kovalivka 0–1 FC Kharkiv
The model makes it 31% Kolos Kovalivka, 29% draw, 40% FC Kharkiv — fair odds of 3.23, 3.45 and 2.50.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Kolos Kovalivka 1.15, FC Kharkiv 1.40.
Both teams to score: 52%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to FC Kharkiv: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Kolos Kovalivka's rating is built from 40 Ukrainian Premier League matches and FC Kharkiv's from 39, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Kolos Kovalivka are 8th on 12 points from 10 games; FC Kharkiv are 4th on 21 points from 9 games — Premier League.
- Kolos Kovalivka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Bukovyna.
- FC Kharkiv are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 FC Kharkiv.
More Ukrainian Premier League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv
Has the model earned this number?
FC Kharkiv at 40%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv
Kolos Kovalivka
Premier League
- D1-1away to Bukovyna8 November 2026
- W2-0away to Veres Rivne23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Shakhtar Donetsk17 October 2026
- W3-1Epitsentr Dunayivtsi10 October 2026
- W3-2away to Kudrivka20 September 2026
FC Kharkiv
Premier League
- W2-1away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi24 October 2026
- W2-1Livyi Bereh19 October 2026
- W2-1away to Chornomorets10 October 2026
- W2-0Bukovyna19 September 2026
- W5-0Obolon'-Brovar5 September 2026
What these results say
- Kolos Kovalivka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Kolos Kovalivka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for Kolos Kovalivka.
- FC Kharkiv won every one of these 5 matches.
- FC Kharkiv scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for FC Kharkiv had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ukraine Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Kolos Kovalivka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 14 | -1 | 12 |
| 4 | FC Kharkiv | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 7 | +11 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kolos Kovalivka
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 4% today
FC Kharkiv
Chance to finish in the top four · 71% today
From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv
- 4 April 2026Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 FC KharkivPremier League
- 28 September 2025FC Kharkiv 1–0 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 23 March 2025FC Kharkiv 0–0 Kolos KovalivkaFriendlies Clubs
- 7 April 2024Kolos Kovalivka 1–1 FC KharkivPremier League
- 24 September 2023FC Kharkiv 0–0 Kolos KovalivkaPremier League
- 9 April 2023Kolos Kovalivka 3–0 FC KharkivPremier League
Leading scorers: Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv
Kolos Kovalivka
GoalsAssists
- D. Ndukwe40
- O. Demchenko31
FC Kharkiv
GoalsAssists
- B. Zabërgja62
- P. Itodo41
- R. Gadzhiev31
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kolos Kovalivka a 0% chance of the title and FC Kharkiv 4.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives FC Kharkiv the highest probability at 40%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka against 1.40 for FC Kharkiv. Kolos Kovalivka's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.47 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.79/1.14 for FC Kharkiv.
How the model reaches 40% for FC Kharkiv to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for FC Kharkiv to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, Kolos Kovalivka's ratings add 5 points and FC Kharkiv's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 40%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Kolos Kovalivka's ratings34%+5
- FC Kharkiv's ratings40%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kolos Kovalivka at home · FC Kharkiv away
League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Premier League matches this season: Kolos Kovalivka 10, FC Kharkiv 9.
Kolos Kovalivka score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); FC Kharkiv have let in 0 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Kolos Kovalivka
- at Livyi Bereh28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 32%
- at LNZ Cherkasy5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 22%
- vs Zorya Luhansk12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 44%
FC Kharkiv
- at Kryvbas KR25 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 48%
- at Kudrivka28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 57%
- vs Dynamo Kyiv5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 43%
- at Veres Rivne12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.