Regular Season - 11 · 14 November 2026, 10:00 UTC

Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna Premier League prediction

Stadium Livyi Bereh, Kyiv
Referee: Oleg Kohut

Our model says: Livyi Bereh 1–0 Bukovyna

The model makes it 44% Livyi Bereh, 31% draw, 25% Bukovyna — fair odds of 2.27, 3.23 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).

Expected goals: Livyi Bereh 1.25, Bukovyna 0.79.

Both teams to score: 39%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Livyi Bereh's rating is built from 12 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Bukovyna's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Livyi Bereh are 12th on 9 points from 10 games; Bukovyna are 10th on 10 points from 11 games — Premier League.
  • Livyi Bereh are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Obolon'-Brovar.
  • Bukovyna have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Kolos Kovalivka.
  • Last 3 meetings: Bukovyna 2 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 April 2026, ended Bukovyna 2–1 Livyi Bereh.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna

39%
Both teams to score
33%
Over 2.5 goals
67%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Livyi Bereh win Draw Bukovyna win
  1. 1–016%
  2. 0–014%
  3. 1–113%
  4. 2–010%
  5. 0–110%
  6. 2–18%
  7. 1–25%

Scores read Livyi Bereh first; the other scorelines share the remaining 24%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Livyi Bereh at 44%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna

Livyi Bereh

Premier League

  • D1-1away to Obolon'-Brovar6 November 2026
  • D0-0LNZ Cherkasy24 October 2026
  • L1-2away to FC Kharkiv19 October 2026
  • L1-3Zorya Luhansk12 October 2026
  • W2-0away to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi19 September 2026

Bukovyna

Premier League

  • D1-1Kolos Kovalivka8 November 2026
  • D0-0Kryvbas KR25 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Kudrivka17 October 2026
  • D2-2Polessya11 October 2026
  • L0-2away to FC Kharkiv19 September 2026

What these results say

  • Livyi Bereh failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Livyi Bereh scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Bukovyna did not win any of these 5 matches.
  • Bukovyna conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
12Livyi Bereh1016379-29
10Bukovyna11173813-510

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Livyi Bereh

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 19% today

Win 13%
Draw 21%
Defeat 27%

Bukovyna

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 41% today

Win 29%
Draw 39%
Defeat 47%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Livyi Bereh vs Bukovyna

  • 8 April 2026Bukovyna 2–1 Livyi BerehPersha Liga
  • 22 September 2025Livyi Bereh 1–3 BukovynaPersha Liga
  • 10 October 2021Bukovyna 1–3 Livyi BerehDruha Liga - Group A

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bukovyna (10th, with Livyi Bereh 12th), while our numbers lean to Livyi Bereh. Livyi Bereh rate 0.48 in attack and 1.36 in defence, Bukovyna 0.48 and 1.60 (lower is better in defence), so Livyi Bereh have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 1-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

How the call on Livyi Bereh v Bukovyna has moved

First published on 17 Oct at 39% / 32% / 29% (home / draw / away). After 5 updates it reads 44% / 31% / 25%: the biggest move is Livyi Bereh's chance of winning, up 5 points.

  1. Livyi Bereh win44%▲ +5
  2. Draw31%▼ −1
  3. Bukovyna win25%▼ −4

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Livyi Bereh Bukovyna
0.48 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.48
1.36 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.6
1.25 Model expected goals (this match) 0.79

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Livyi Bereh the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Livyi Bereh against 0.79 for Bukovyna. Livyi Bereh's attack/defence rating is 0.48/1.36 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.48/1.6 for Bukovyna.

Livyi Bereh carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.26 for Bukovyna. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 44% for Livyi Bereh to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Livyi Bereh to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 4 points, Livyi Bereh's ratings add 2 points and Bukovyna's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 44%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−4
  4. Livyi Bereh's ratings42%+2
  5. Bukovyna's ratings44%+2

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Livyi BerehBukovyna
10Matches11
1W 6D 3LRecord1W 7D 3L
7 0.7 per gameGoals scored8 0.7 per game
9 0.9 per gameGoals conceded13 1.2 per game
4 of 10Clean sheets5 of 11
4 of 10Failed to score6 of 11
–Penalties scored1 of 1
14 1.4 per gameYellow cards21 1.9 per game
4-2-3-1 6×Usual shape4-3-3 2×

Livyi Bereh at home · Bukovyna away

4Played4
0W 3D 1LRecord0W 1D 3L
2–4Goals for – against1–9
2 of 4Clean sheets1 of 4

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Livyi Bereh 10, Bukovyna 11.

Livyi Bereh scored 121041
Bukovyna conceded 421322

Livyi Bereh score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Bukovyna have let in 2 there.

Bukovyna scored 101302
Livyi Bereh conceded 012220

Bukovyna score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Livyi Bereh have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Livyi Bereh

Bukovyna

  • at Veres Rivne22 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 33%
  • at Shakhtar Donetsk30 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 7%
  • vs Chornomorets5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 40%
  • at LNZ Cherkasy12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 17%
  • at Obolon'-Brovar27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.