Regular Season - 13 · 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC

Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk Premier League prediction

Ukraina Stadium, Lviv

Our model says: Karpaty 2–0 Zorya Luhansk

The model makes it 56% Karpaty, 24% draw, 20% Zorya Luhansk — fair odds of 1.79, 4.17 and 5.00.

Most likely scoreline: 2-0.

Expected goals: Karpaty 2.04, Zorya Luhansk 1.00.

Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.

Edge to Karpaty: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Karpaty's rating is built from 41 Ukrainian Premier League matches and Zorya Luhansk's from 42, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.

Key facts

  • Karpaty are 5th on 19 points from 11 games; Zorya Luhansk are 7th on 18 points from 12 games — Premier League.
  • Karpaty are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 5-0 win at home to Kudrivka.
  • Zorya Luhansk have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to LNZ Cherkasy.
  • Last 6 meetings: Zorya Luhansk 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 May 2026, ended Karpaty 1–2 Zorya Luhansk.

More Ukrainian Premier League predictions

All Ukrainian Premier League predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk

55%
Both teams to score
59%
Over 2.5 goals
41%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Karpaty win Draw Zorya Luhansk win
  1. 1–110%
  2. 2–010%
  3. 2–110%
  4. 1–09%
  5. 3–07%
  6. 3–17%
  7. 0–05%

Scores read Karpaty first; the other scorelines share the remaining 42%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Karpaty at 56%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk

Karpaty

Premier League

  • W5-0Kudrivka2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Chornomorets25 October 2026
  • D2-2Epitsentr Dunayivtsi18 October 2026
  • L0-1away to Dynamo Kyiv11 October 2026
  • D1-1Veres Rivne20 September 2026

Zorya Luhansk

Premier League

  • L1-2LNZ Cherkasy8 November 2026
  • W1-0Epitsentr Dunayivtsi2 November 2026
  • D0-0away to Shakhtar Donetsk24 October 2026
  • W2-1Chornomorets17 October 2026
  • W3-1away to Livyi Bereh12 October 2026

What these results say

  • Karpaty failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Zorya Luhansk scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ukraine Premier League table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
5Karpaty11542228+1419
7Zorya Luhansk125341415-118

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Karpaty

Chance to finish in the top four · 31% today

Win 35%
Draw 25%
Defeat 21%

Zorya Luhansk

Chance to finish in the top four · 4% today

Win 7%
Draw 4%
Defeat 2%

From our Premier League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Karpaty vs Zorya Luhansk

  • 23 May 2026Karpaty 1–2 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 5 December 2025Zorya Luhansk 1–0 KarpatyPremier League
  • 25 May 2025Karpaty 1–3 Zorya LuhanskPremier League
  • 2 December 2024Zorya Luhansk 2–1 KarpatyPremier League
  • 30 November 2019Zorya Luhansk 2–0 KarpatyPremier League
  • 25 August 2019Karpaty 0–1 Zorya LuhanskPremier League

Leading scorers: Karpaty and Zorya Luhansk

Karpaty

GoalsAssists

  • Y. Kostenko50
  • Xeber Alkain22

Zorya Luhansk

No player in Premier League's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Karpaty a 0.6% chance of the title and Zorya Luhansk 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

How the call on Karpaty v Zorya Luhansk has moved

First published on 7 Nov at 54% / 25% / 21% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 56% / 24% / 20%: the biggest move is Karpaty's chance of winning, up 2 points.

  1. Karpaty win56%▲ +2
  2. Draw24%▼ −1
  3. Zorya Luhansk win20%▼ −1

Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Karpaty Zorya Luhansk
0.8 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.68
1.22 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.57
2.04 Model expected goals (this match) 1.00

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Karpaty the highest probability at 56%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.04 expected goals for Karpaty against 1.00 for Zorya Luhansk. Karpaty's attack/defence rating is 0.8/1.22 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.57 for Zorya Luhansk.

Karpaty carry a model rating of 6.64 against 6.43 for Zorya Luhansk.

How the model reaches 56% for Karpaty to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Karpaty to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Karpaty's ratings add 6 points and Zorya Luhansk's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 56%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage44%+8
  3. Karpaty's ratings50%+6
  4. Zorya Luhansk's ratings56%+6

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

KarpatyZorya Luhansk
11Matches12
5W 4D 2LRecord5W 3D 4L
22 2.0 per gameGoals scored14 1.2 per game
8 0.7 per gameGoals conceded15 1.3 per game
5 of 11Clean sheets3 of 12
2 of 11Failed to score3 of 12
1 of 1Penalties scored1 of 1
24 2.2 per gameYellow cards24 2.0 per game
3Red cards0
4-3-3 4×Usual shape4-4-2 5×

Karpaty at home · Zorya Luhansk away

6Played5
3W 2D 1LRecord2W 3D 0L
15–5Goals for – against7–4
3 of 6Clean sheets1 of 5

League matches only, Premier League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Premier League matches this season: Karpaty 11, Zorya Luhansk 12.

Karpaty scored 422455
Zorya Luhansk conceded 231343
Zorya Luhansk scored 112342
Karpaty conceded 121022

Zorya Luhansk score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Karpaty have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Karpaty

  • vs Polessya28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 39%
  • at Obolon'-Brovar5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 56%
  • vs Kryvbas KR12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 65%
  • at LNZ Cherkasy27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 32%
  • at Bukovyna6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 48%

Zorya Luhansk

  • at Obolon'-Brovar28 Nov · Premier Leaguewin 45%
  • vs Kudrivka5 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 63%
  • at Kolos Kovalivka12 Dec · Premier Leaguewin 29%
  • at Kryvbas KR27 Feb · Premier Leaguewin 36%
  • vs Polessya6 Mar · Premier Leaguewin 29%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.