AB Copenhagen
vs
Vendsyssel FF
1. Division prediction
Our model says: AB Copenhagen 2–0 Vendsyssel FF
The model makes it 57% AB Copenhagen, 25% draw, 18% Vendsyssel FF — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (12%).
Expected goals: AB Copenhagen 1.92, Vendsyssel FF 0.85.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 52%, under 2.5: 48%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,455 settled matches.
Edge to AB Copenhagen: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. AB Copenhagen's rating is built from 11 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Vendsyssel FF's from 11, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- AB Copenhagen are 4th on 15 points from 11 games; Vendsyssel FF are 10th on 10 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- AB Copenhagen are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 3-2 win away to HB Koge.
- Vendsyssel FF have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Kolding IF.
- Last 6 meetings: AB Copenhagen 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 16 August 2026, ended Vendsyssel FF 0–3 AB Copenhagen.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF
Has the model earned this number?
It puts AB Copenhagen at 57% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 1,093 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF
AB Copenhagen
1. Division
- W3-2away to HB Koge16 October 2026
- W2-0Aarhus Fremad9 October 2026
- W3-0Esbjerg19 September 2026
- L0-1away to Hillerød12 September 2026
- L0-2Aalborg5 September 2026
Vendsyssel FF
1. Division
- L1-2away to Kolding IF16 October 2026
- L0-2HB Koge11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Aalborg20 September 2026
- D0-0Aarhus Fremad11 September 2026
- L1-4away to Vejle4 September 2026
What these results say
- Vendsyssel FF did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Vendsyssel FF conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | AB Copenhagen | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 15 |
| 10 | Vendsyssel FF | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 18 | -7 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: AB Copenhagen vs Vendsyssel FF
- 16 August 2026Vendsyssel FF 0–3 AB Copenhagen1. Division
- 17 May 2026Vendsyssel FF 1–2 AB Copenhagen2. Division
- 18 April 2026AB Copenhagen 0–2 Vendsyssel FF2. Division
- 8 November 2025AB Copenhagen 3–1 Vendsyssel FF2. Division
- 29 August 2025Vendsyssel FF 2–3 AB Copenhagen2. Division
- 30 April 2017AB Copenhagen 0–3 Vendsyssel FF1. Division
The two sides
AB Copenhagen carry a model rating of 6.31 against 6.06 for Vendsyssel FF. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.92 goals for AB Copenhagen and 0.85 for Vendsyssel FF. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
AB Copenhagen rate 0.56 in attack and 1.64 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vendsyssel FF rate 0.43 and 2.11.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives AB Copenhagen a 1.2% chance of the title and Vendsyssel FF 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives AB Copenhagen the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.92 expected goals for AB Copenhagen against 0.85 for Vendsyssel FF. AB Copenhagen's attack/defence rating is 0.56/1.64 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.43/2.11 for Vendsyssel FF.
How the model reaches 57% for AB Copenhagen to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for AB Copenhagen to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, AB Copenhagen's ratings take away 25 points and Vendsyssel FF's ratings add 38 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- AB Copenhagen's ratings19%−25
- Vendsyssel FF's ratings57%+38
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
AB Copenhagen at home · Vendsyssel FF away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: AB Copenhagen 11, Vendsyssel FF 11.
AB Copenhagen score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Vendsyssel FF have let in 6 there.
Vendsyssel FF score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); AB Copenhagen have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
AB Copenhagen
- at Esbjerg21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 39%
- vs Vejle27 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 43%
- at Aarhus Fremad4 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 31%
Vendsyssel FF
- vs Hvidovre21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 29%
- at Hillerød28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 25%
- vs Aalborg5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.