HB Koge
vs
Aalborg
1. Division prediction
Our model says: HB Koge 2–1 Aalborg
The model makes it 45% HB Koge, 26% draw, 29% Aalborg — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: HB Koge 1.71, Aalborg 1.27.
Both teams to score: 59%. Over 2.5 goals: 57%, under 2.5: 43%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,054 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 23 October 2026. HB Koge's rating is built from 43 1. Division (Denmark) matches and Aalborg's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- HB Koge are 9th on 10 points from 11 games; Aalborg are 5th on 14 points from 11 games — 1. Division.
- HB Koge have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat at home to AB Copenhagen.
- Aalborg are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Vejle.
- Last 6 meetings: Aalborg 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 29 August 2026, ended Aalborg 0–0 HB Koge.
More 1. Division (Denmark) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HB Koge vs Aalborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HB Koge at 45% here. Across 4,444 settled matches (as of 23 October 2026), 2,059 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.9% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into HB Koge vs Aalborg
HB Koge
1. Division
- L2-3AB Copenhagen16 October 2026
- W2-0away to Vendsyssel FF11 October 2026
- W5-2Hobro21 September 2026
- D2-2away to Esbjerg12 September 2026
- D1-1Hillerød4 September 2026
Aalborg
1. Division
- L0-1Vejle17 October 2026
- D3-3away to Esbjerg10 October 2026
- D2-2Vendsyssel FF20 September 2026
- D2-2away to Hvidovre12 September 2026
- W2-0away to AB Copenhagen5 September 2026
What these results say
- HB Koge scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HB Koge conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for HB Koge.
- Aalborg failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Aalborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
1. Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | HB Koge | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 15 | 20 | -5 | 10 |
| 5 | Aalborg | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 14 | 15 | -1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: HB Koge vs Aalborg
- 29 August 2026Aalborg 0–0 HB Koge1. Division
- 30 May 2026Aalborg 1–0 HB Koge1. Division
- 26 April 2026HB Koge 1–1 Aalborg1. Division
- 2 October 2025Aalborg 2–1 HB Koge1. Division
- 10 August 2025HB Koge 0–2 Aalborg1. Division
- 3 December 2023HB Koge 1–2 Aalborg1. Division
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HB Koge carry a model rating of 6.15 against 6.15 for Aalborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.71 goals for HB Koge and 1.27 for Aalborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HB Koge rate 0.52 in attack and 2.10 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Aalborg rate 0.50 and 2.02.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Aalborg, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives HB Koge a 0% chance of the title and Aalborg 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,148 correct results out of 4,449 settled predictions (48%), with 446 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HB Koge the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for HB Koge against 1.27 for Aalborg. HB Koge's attack/defence rating is 0.52/2.1 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.02 for Aalborg.
How the model reaches 45% for HB Koge to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HB Koge to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, HB Koge's ratings take away 31 points and Aalborg's ratings add 32 points, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- HB Koge's ratings13%−31
- Aalborg's ratings45%+32
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HB Koge at home · Aalborg away
League matches only, 1. Division, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All 1. Division matches this season: HB Koge 11, Aalborg 11.
HB Koge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Aalborg have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
HB Koge
- at Vejle21 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 19%
- vs Aarhus Fremad28 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 38%
- at Hillerød5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 30%
Aalborg
- at Kolding IF20 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 28%
- vs Esbjerg26 Nov · 1. Divisionwin 47%
- at Vendsyssel FF5 Dec · 1. Divisionwin 33%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.