Regular Season - 36 · 25 November 2026, 23:00 UTC

Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians Serie A prediction

MRV Arena, Belo Horizonte

Our model says: Atletico Mineiro 1–0 Corinthians

The model makes it 49% Atletico Mineiro, 29% draw, 22% Corinthians — fair odds of 2.04, 3.45 and 4.55.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (14%).

Expected goals: Atletico Mineiro 1.49, Corinthians 0.83.

Both teams to score: 44%. Over 2.5 goals: 41%, under 2.5: 59%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Key facts

  • Atletico Mineiro are 7th on 50 points from 34 games; Corinthians are 17th on 37 points from 34 games — Serie A.
  • Atletico Mineiro are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Botafogo.
  • Corinthians have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw away to Sao Paulo.
  • Last 6 meetings: Corinthians 2 wins to 1, 3 draws; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Corinthians 1–0 Atletico Mineiro.

More Brazilian Serie A predictions

All Brazilian Serie A predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians

44%
Both teams to score
41%
Over 2.5 goals
59%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Atletico Mineiro win Draw Corinthians win
  1. 1–014%
  2. 1–113%
  3. 2–011%
  4. 0–010%
  5. 2–19%
  6. 0–18%
  7. 3–05%

Scores read Atletico Mineiro first; the other scorelines share the remaining 30%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Atletico Mineiro at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians

Atletico Mineiro

Serie A

  • L0-1away to Botafogo5 November 2026
  • L0-1Cruzeiro29 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Flamengo26 October 2026
  • W1-0Coritiba17 October 2026
  • W2-1Santos11 October 2026

Corinthians

Serie A

  • D0-0away to Sao Paulo5 November 2026
  • W2-0Mirassol30 October 2026
  • L2-3away to Vasco da Gama24 October 2026
  • D1-1Vitoria19 October 2026
  • L1-4away to Palmeiras11 October 2026

What these results say

  • Atletico Mineiro conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Corinthians scored in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Brazil Serie A table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
7Atletico Mineiro34148124440+450
17Corinthians34910153642-637

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Corinthians

Chance to finish in the bottom four · 39% today

Win 15%
Draw 35%
Defeat 49%

From our Serie A season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians

  • 24 May 2026Corinthians 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 18 October 2025Corinthians 1–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 25 May 2025Atletico Mineiro 0–0 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 28 July 2024Atletico Mineiro 2–1 CorinthiansSerie A
  • 14 April 2024Corinthians 0–0 Atletico MineiroSerie A
  • 9 November 2023Corinthians 1–1 Atletico MineiroSerie A

The full Atletico Mineiro vs Corinthians record →

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Atletico Mineiro Corinthians
0.83 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.75
0.99 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.13
1.49 Model expected goals (this match) 0.83

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Atletico Mineiro the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Atletico Mineiro against 0.83 for Corinthians. Atletico Mineiro's attack/defence rating is 0.83/0.99 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.75/1.13 for Corinthians.

How the model reaches 49% for Atletico Mineiro to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Atletico Mineiro to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Atletico Mineiro's ratings add 3 points and Corinthians's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage45%+9
  3. Both sides at this match's level43%−2
  4. Atletico Mineiro's ratings46%+3
  5. Corinthians's ratings49%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

Atletico MineiroCorinthians
34Matches34
14W 8D 12LRecord9W 10D 15L
44 1.3 per gameGoals scored36 1.1 per game
40 1.2 per gameGoals conceded42 1.2 per game
8 of 34Clean sheets12 of 34
11 of 34Failed to score8 of 34
2 of 2Penalties scored1 of 1
58 1.7 per gameYellow cards88 2.6 per game
4Red cards6
4-2-3-1 13×Usual shape4-2-3-1 23×

Atletico Mineiro at home · Corinthians away

17Played17
10W 5D 2LRecord3W 6D 8L
27–18Goals for – against18–25
5 of 17Clean sheets5 of 17

League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Serie A matches this season: Atletico Mineiro 34, Corinthians 34.

Atletico Mineiro scored 49731010
Corinthians conceded 55153210
Corinthians scored 45410411
Atletico Mineiro conceded 5483813

Corinthians score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); Atletico Mineiro have let in 13 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 2 matches, by difficulty

Atletico Mineiro

  • vs Vasco da Gama29 Nov · Serie Awin 48%
  • at Bahia3 Dec · Serie Awin 28%

Corinthians

  • vs Gremio29 Nov · Serie Awin 44%
  • at Remo3 Dec · Serie Awin 32%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.