Fleetwood Town
vs
Bristol Rovers
League Two prediction
Our model says: Fleetwood Town 1–0 Bristol Rovers
The model makes it 42% Fleetwood Town, 28% draw, 30% Bristol Rovers — fair odds of 2.38, 3.57 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fleetwood Town 1.47, Bristol Rovers 1.16.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Fleetwood Town are 12th on 14 points from 11 games; Bristol Rovers are 9th on 15 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Fleetwood Town have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Rotherham.
- Bristol Rovers are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Shrewsbury.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 April 2026, ended Bristol Rovers 1–0 Fleetwood Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Fleetwood Town at 42% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 1,906 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.7% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.8%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
Fleetwood Town
- W2-0Rotherham17 October 2026
- D1-1Walsall10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Salford City3 October 2026
- L1-2Rochdale26 September 2026
- L1-3away to Barnet19 September 2026
Bristol Rovers
- L0-1away to Shrewsbury17 October 2026
- L1-3Barnet10 October 2026
- L1-3away to Crewe3 October 2026
- W1-0Exeter City26 September 2026
- L0-3away to Gillingham19 September 2026
What these results say
- Fleetwood Town failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Fleetwood Town conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bristol Rovers conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Fleetwood Town | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 14 |
| 9 | Bristol Rovers | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Fleetwood Town
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 9% today
Bristol Rovers
Chance to finish in the top four · 11% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Fleetwood Town vs Bristol Rovers
- 3 April 2026Bristol Rovers 1–0 Fleetwood TownLeague Two
- 9 August 2025Fleetwood Town 2–1 Bristol RoversLeague Two
- 12 March 2024Fleetwood Town 0–0 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 6 February 2024Bristol Rovers 0–2 Fleetwood TownLeague One
- 10 April 2023Fleetwood Town 1–2 Bristol RoversLeague One
- 12 November 2022Bristol Rovers 2–2 Fleetwood TownLeague One
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fleetwood Town carry a model rating of 6.13 against 6.11 for Bristol Rovers. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.47 goals for Fleetwood Town and 1.16 for Bristol Rovers. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Fleetwood Town rate 0.44 in attack and 1.86 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Bristol Rovers rate 0.52 and 2.30.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Bristol Rovers, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fleetwood Town a 0.7% chance of the title and Bristol Rovers 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fleetwood Town the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Fleetwood Town against 1.16 for Bristol Rovers. Fleetwood Town's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.86 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.52/2.3 for Bristol Rovers.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Fleetwood Town at home · Bristol Rovers away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Fleetwood Town 11, Bristol Rovers 11.
Bristol Rovers score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); Fleetwood Town have let in 1 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Fleetwood Town
- vs Tranmere14 Nov · League Twowin 48%
- at Crawley Town21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Accrington Stanley28 Nov · League Twowin 42%
Bristol Rovers
- vs Chesterfield14 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- at Cheltenham21 Nov · League Twowin 36%
- vs Tranmere28 Nov · League Twowin 49%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.