Shrewsbury
vs
Gillingham
League Two prediction
Our model says: Shrewsbury 1–0 Gillingham
The model makes it 37% Shrewsbury, 28% draw, 35% Gillingham — fair odds of 2.70, 3.57 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Shrewsbury 1.37, Gillingham 1.33.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 51%, under 2.5: 49%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Shrewsbury and Gillingham are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Shrewsbury are 14th on 14 points from 11 games; Gillingham are 6th on 16 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Shrewsbury have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Bristol Rovers.
- Gillingham have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-3 defeat away to Accrington Stanley.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 1 win each, 4 draws; the most recent, 2 May 2026, ended Gillingham 1–0 Shrewsbury.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Shrewsbury at 37% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
Shrewsbury
- W1-0Bristol Rovers17 October 2026
- L0-1Exeter City10 October 2026
- W2-1away to Grimsby3 October 2026
- D2-2Colchester26 September 2026
- D1-1away to Crewe19 September 2026
Gillingham
- L1-3away to Accrington Stanley17 October 2026
- W4-1away to Rotherham10 October 2026
- D0-0Newport County3 October 2026
- L0-3away to York26 September 2026
- W3-0Bristol Rovers19 September 2026
What these results say
- Shrewsbury scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Shrewsbury conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Gillingham had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shrewsbury | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 14 |
| 6 | Gillingham | 11 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 16 | 13 | +3 | 16 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Shrewsbury
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 26% today
Gillingham
Chance to finish in the top four · 9% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Shrewsbury vs Gillingham
- 2 May 2026Gillingham 1–0 ShrewsburyLeague Two
- 29 November 2025Shrewsbury 3–3 GillinghamLeague Two
- 25 January 2022Gillingham 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 28 August 2021Shrewsbury 2–1 GillinghamLeague One
- 10 April 2021Gillingham 0–0 ShrewsburyLeague One
- 3 October 2020Shrewsbury 1–1 GillinghamLeague One
Leading scorers: Shrewsbury and Gillingham
Shrewsbury
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Gillingham
GoalsAssists
- Ronan Hale41
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Shrewsbury carry a model rating of 6 against 6.08 for Gillingham. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.37 goals for Shrewsbury and 1.33 for Gillingham. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Shrewsbury rate 0.40 in attack and 2.21 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Gillingham rate 0.50 and 2.36.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Gillingham, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Shrewsbury a 0% chance of the title and Gillingham 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Shrewsbury the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Shrewsbury against 1.33 for Gillingham. Shrewsbury's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.21 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.5/2.36 for Gillingham.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Shrewsbury at home · Gillingham away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Shrewsbury 11, Gillingham 11.
Shrewsbury score most often in the 31–45 minute window (3 goals); Gillingham have let in 2 there.
Gillingham score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Shrewsbury have let in 0 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Shrewsbury
- vs Oldham14 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- at Chesterfield21 Nov · League Twowin 22%
- vs Cheltenham28 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Gillingham
- at Colchester14 Nov · League Twowin 29%
- vs Crewe21 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Salford City28 Nov · League Twowin 23%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.