Rotherham
vs
Crawley Town
League Two prediction
Our model says: Rotherham 2–1 Crawley Town
The model makes it 45% Rotherham, 26% draw, 29% Crawley Town — fair odds of 2.22, 3.85 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Rotherham 1.80, Crawley Town 1.34.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Rotherham's rating is built from 13 League Two matches and Crawley Town's from 57, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,266 matches.
Key facts
- Rotherham are 22nd on 12 points from 13 games; Crawley Town are bottom on 6 points from 11 games — League Two.
- Rotherham have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 3-3 draw at home to Shrewsbury.
- Crawley Town have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Tranmere.
- Last 6 meetings: Crawley Town 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 29 March 2025, ended Rotherham 0–4 Crawley Town.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Has the model earned this number?
Rotherham at 45%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Rotherham vs Crawley Town
Rotherham
League Two
- D3-3Shrewsbury24 October 2026
- D2-2Newport County20 October 2026
- L0-2away to Fleetwood Town17 October 2026
- L1-4Gillingham10 October 2026
- L0-1away to Exeter City3 October 2026
Crawley Town
League Two
- D1-1Tranmere24 October 2026
- L2-3Shrewsbury20 October 2026
- L1-2away to Salford City17 October 2026
- D2-2Chesterfield10 October 2026
- L0-2away to Grimsby19 September 2026
What these results say
- Rotherham did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Rotherham conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crawley Town scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Rotherham | 13 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 17 | 23 | -6 | 12 |
| 24 | Crawley Town | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 21 | -9 | 6 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Rotherham vs Crawley Town
- 29 March 2025Rotherham 0–4 Crawley TownLeague One
- 23 November 2024Crawley Town 1–0 RotherhamLeague One
- 25 January 2014Rotherham 2–2 Crawley TownLeague One
- 17 August 2013Crawley Town 1–2 RotherhamLeague One
- 24 March 2012Crawley Town 3–0 RotherhamLeague Two
- 26 November 2011Rotherham 1–2 Crawley TownLeague Two
Leading scorers: Rotherham and Crawley Town
Rotherham
GoalsAssists
- P. Mullin80
Crawley Town
No player in League Two's leading scorers — 12 league goals as a side.
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Rotherham the highest probability at 45%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Rotherham against 1.34 for Crawley Town. Rotherham's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.77 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.4/2.51 for Crawley Town.
How the model reaches 45% for Rotherham to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Rotherham to win. Then home advantage adds 5 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Rotherham's ratings add 2 points and Crawley Town's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 45%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage41%+5
- Both sides at this match's level42%+1
- Rotherham's ratings44%+2
- Crawley Town's ratings45%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Rotherham at home · Crawley Town away
League matches only, League Two, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Rotherham 13, Crawley Town 11.
Crawley Town score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); Rotherham have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Rotherham
- at Grimsby21 Nov · League Twowin 20%
- vs Oldham28 Nov · League Twowin 34%
- at Barnet1 Dec · League Twowin 17%
- vs Walsall12 Dec · League Twowin 31%
Crawley Town
- vs Fleetwood Town21 Nov · League Twowin 32%
- vs Barnet24 Nov · League Twowin 23%
- at Exeter City28 Nov · League Twowin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.