Crewe
vs
Barnet
League Two prediction
Our model says: Crewe 1–2 Barnet
The model makes it 36% Crewe, 26% draw, 38% Barnet — fair odds of 2.78, 3.85 and 2.63. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Crewe 1.58, Barnet 1.64.
Both teams to score: 65%. Over 2.5 goals: 62%, under 2.5: 38%.
Model confidence: Low.
A tight game: Crewe and Barnet are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Key facts
- Crewe are 3rd on 21 points from 11 games; Barnet are 2nd on 21 points from 9 games — League Two.
- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Rochdale.
- Barnet are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 2-1 win away to Tranmere.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 3 February 2026, ended Barnet 1–1 Crewe.
More League Two predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Crewe vs Barnet
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Barnet at 38% here. Across 4,088 settled matches (as of 18 October 2026), 3,180 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Crewe vs Barnet
Crewe
- W3-2Rochdale17 October 2026
- W1-0away to Swindon Town10 October 2026
- W3-1Bristol Rovers3 October 2026
- D1-1away to Rotherham26 September 2026
- D1-1Shrewsbury19 September 2026
Barnet
- W2-1away to Tranmere17 October 2026
- W3-1away to Bristol Rovers10 October 2026
- W3-1Fleetwood Town19 September 2026
- W2-1Accrington Stanley12 September 2026
- D3-3away to Chesterfield5 September 2026
What these results say
- Crewe went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Crewe scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Crewe conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barnet went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Barnet scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnet conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
League Two table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Crewe | 11 | 5 | 6 | 0 | 15 | 9 | +6 | 21 |
| 2 | Barnet | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 22 | 12 | +10 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Crewe
Chance to finish in the top four · 45% today
Barnet
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 46% today
From our League Two season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: Crewe vs Barnet
- 3 February 2026Barnet 1–1 CreweLeague Two
- 13 September 2025Crewe 1–2 BarnetLeague Two
- 30 March 2018Barnet 2–1 CreweLeague Two
- 19 August 2017Crewe 1–0 BarnetLeague Two
- 6 May 2017Crewe 4–1 BarnetLeague Two
- 19 November 2016Barnet 0–0 CreweLeague Two
Leading scorers: Crewe and Barnet
Crewe
GoalsAssists
- J. March32
Barnet
GoalsAssists
- C. Lakin62
- K. Tshimanga54
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Crewe carry a model rating of 6.21 against 6.35 for Barnet. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects goals
Under the hood the model expects 1.58 goals for Crewe and 1.64 for Barnet. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Crewe rate 0.52 in attack and 1.87 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Barnet rate 0.73 and 2.09.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Crewe a 9.2% chance of the title and Barnet 45.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,962 correct results out of 4,088 settled predictions (48%), with 410 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Barnet the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Crewe against 1.64 for Barnet. Crewe's attack/defence rating is 0.52/1.87 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/2.09 for Barnet.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Crewe at home · Barnet away
League matches only, League Two, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League Two matches this season: Crewe 11, Barnet 8.
Crewe score most often in the 46–60 minute window (4 goals); Barnet have let in 1 there.
Barnet score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Crewe have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Crewe
- vs Newport County14 Nov · League Twowin 49%
- at Gillingham21 Nov · League Twowin 39%
- vs Grimsby28 Nov · League Twowin 41%
Barnet
- at Walsall14 Nov · League Twowin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.