RB Bragantino
vs
Vasco da Gama
Serie A prediction
Our model says: RB Bragantino 1–0 Vasco da Gama
The model makes it 48% RB Bragantino, 26% draw, 26% Vasco da Gama — fair odds of 2.08, 3.85 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: RB Bragantino 1.70, Vasco da Gama 1.10.
Both teams to score: 55%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,919 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- RB Bragantino are 8th on 47 points from 34 games; Vasco da Gama are 13th on 41 points from 33 games — Serie A.
- RB Bragantino have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Santos.
- Vasco da Gama have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-1 win away to Atletico Paranaense.
- Last 6 meetings: RB Bragantino 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 24 May 2026, ended Vasco da Gama 0–3 RB Bragantino.
More Brazilian Serie A predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama
Has the model earned this number?
RB Bragantino at 48%: of 2,924 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.0% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama
RB Bragantino
Serie A
- W2-1Santos2 November 2026
- W3-0Chapecoense28 October 2026
- L0-2away to Palmeiras24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Remo18 October 2026
- W4-2Cruzeiro13 October 2026
Vasco da Gama
Serie A
- W3-1away to Atletico Paranaense4 November 2026
- L1-4Flamengo29 October 2026
- W3-2Corinthians24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Sao Paulo18 October 2026
- D0-0Remo10 October 2026
What these results say
- RB Bragantino scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- RB Bragantino conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Vasco da Gama conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Brazil Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | RB Bragantino | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44 | 39 | +5 | 47 |
| 13 | Vasco da Gama | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43 | 50 | -7 | 41 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: RB Bragantino vs Vasco da Gama
RB Bragantino and Vasco da Gama have met 6 times in the records we hold, RB Bragantino has won 3 of them to Vasco da Gama's 2, with 1 drawn.
The record
RB Bragantino won the last one 3–0 on 24 May 2026.
| Club | W | D | L | GF | GA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 3 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 |
| Vasco da Gama | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 10 |
Between them these 6 meetings produced 18 goals, an average of 3.00 a game.
Every meeting
Every recorded meeting, newest first.
- 24 May 2026
Serie AVasco da Gama 0–3 RB Bragantino - 26 Oct 2025
Serie ARB Bragantino 0–3 Vasco da Gama - 1 Jun 2025
Serie AVasco da Gama 0–2 RB Bragantino - 3 Aug 2024
Serie AVasco da Gama 2–2 RB Bragantino - 17 Apr 2024
Serie ARB Bragantino 2–1 Vasco da Gama - 7 Dec 2023
Serie AVasco da Gama 2–1 RB Bragantino
How the model rates them now
On the current ratings, Vasco da Gama's attack rates 7% above RB Bragantino's, and RB Bragantino concede 14% fewer than Vasco da Gama. How the ratings are derived.
| Club | Attack | Defence |
|---|---|---|
| RB Bragantino | 0.86 | 1.07 |
| Vasco da Gama | 0.92 | 1.25 |
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives RB Bragantino the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.70 expected goals for RB Bragantino against 1.10 for Vasco da Gama. RB Bragantino's attack/defence rating is 0.86/1.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.92/1.25 for Vasco da Gama.
How the model reaches 48% for RB Bragantino to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for RB Bragantino to win. Then home advantage adds 9 points, RB Bragantino's ratings add 1 point and Vasco da Gama's ratings add 2 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage45%+9
- RB Bragantino's ratings46%+1
- Vasco da Gama's ratings48%+2
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
RB Bragantino at home · Vasco da Gama away
League matches only, Serie A, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie A matches this season: RB Bragantino 34, Vasco da Gama 33.
RB Bragantino score most often in the 31–45 minute window (11 goals); Vasco da Gama have let in 7 there.
Vasco da Gama score most often in the 76–90 minute window (15 goals); RB Bragantino have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 2 matches, by difficulty
RB Bragantino
- at Internacional29 Nov · Serie Awin 30%
- vs Fluminense3 Dec · Serie Awin 40%
Vasco da Gama
- at Atletico Mineiro29 Nov · Serie Awin 25%
- vs Vitoria3 Dec · Serie Awin 54%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.