Raków Częstochowa
vs
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Piast Gliwice
The model makes it 46% Raków Częstochowa, 24% draw, 30% Piast Gliwice — fair odds of 2.17, 4.17 and 3.33.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.98, Piast Gliwice 1.53.
Both teams to score: 68%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Raków Częstochowa's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Piast Gliwice's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Raków Częstochowa are 16th on 12 points from 14 games; Piast Gliwice are 7th on 22 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Legia Warszawa.
- Piast Gliwice are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slask Wroclaw.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 27 June 2026, ended Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Piast Gliwice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice
Has the model earned this number?
Raków Częstochowa at 46%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa
- W4-2away to Legia Warszawa8 November 2026
- W3-1Pogon Szczecin2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Wisla Plock31 October 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze18 October 2026
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Raków Częstochowa had three goals or more.
- Piast Gliwice went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 |
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Piast Gliwice
- 27 June 2026Raków Częstochowa 2–0 Piast GliwiceFriendlies Clubs
- 17 May 2026Piast Gliwice 1–3 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 22 November 2025Raków Częstochowa 1–3 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 8 March 2025Piast Gliwice 0–3 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 30 August 2024Raków Częstochowa 0–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 27 February 2024Piast Gliwice 3–0 Raków CzęstochowaCup
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Piast Gliwice
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch81
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Piast Gliwice (7th, with Raków Częstochowa 16th), while our numbers lean to Raków Częstochowa. Raków Częstochowa rate 0.99 in attack and 1.43 in defence, Piast Gliwice 0.84 and 1.20 (lower is better in defence), so Raków Częstochowa have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 10-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Raków Częstochowa a 0% chance of the title and Piast Gliwice 0.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.98 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.53 for Piast Gliwice. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.84/1.2 for Piast Gliwice.
How the model reaches 46% for Raków Częstochowa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Raków Częstochowa to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Raków Częstochowa's ratings add 1 point and Piast Gliwice's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Raków Częstochowa's ratings47%+1
- Piast Gliwice's ratings46%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Raków Częstochowa at home · Piast Gliwice away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Raków CzęstochowaPiast Gliwice
Raków Częstochowa are 16th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Piast Gliwice are 7th after 14 (between 5th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Raków Częstochowa 14, Piast Gliwice 14.
Raków Częstochowa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 3 there.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
Raków Częstochowa
- at Radomiak Radom6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Wisla Plock12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- vs Slask Wroclaw30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 57%
- at Zaglebie Lubin6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 30%
Piast Gliwice
- vs Jagiellonia6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- at Wisla Krakow30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Lech Poznan6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.