Piast Gliwice
vs
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Piast Gliwice 1–0 Korona Kielce
The model makes it 51% Piast Gliwice, 27% draw, 22% Korona Kielce — fair odds of 1.96, 3.70 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Piast Gliwice 1.71, Korona Kielce 0.93.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Piast Gliwice: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Piast Gliwice's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Korona Kielce's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Piast Gliwice are 7th on 22 points from 14 games; Korona Kielce are 11th on 18 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Piast Gliwice are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 0-0 draw away to Slask Wroclaw.
- Korona Kielce have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat at home to Radomiak Radom.
- Last 6 meetings: Piast Gliwice 2 wins to 0, 4 draws; the most recent, 1 May 2026, ended Korona Kielce 1–1 Piast Gliwice.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce
Has the model earned this number?
Piast Gliwice at 51%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
Ekstraklasa
- D0-0away to Slask Wroclaw7 November 2026
- D2-2away to Wisla Plock31 October 2026
- W3-1Cracovia Krakow24 October 2026
- D1-1away to Gornik Zabrze18 October 2026
- W2-1Widzew Łódź11 October 2026
Korona Kielce
Ekstraklasa
- L0-2Radomiak Radom7 November 2026
- L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin2 November 2026
- W1-0GKS Katowice24 October 2026
- L1-6away to Lech Poznan18 October 2026
- L0-2away to Pogon Szczecin11 October 2026
What these results say
- Piast Gliwice went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Piast Gliwice conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Korona Kielce conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Korona Kielce had two goals or fewer.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Piast Gliwice | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 24 | 20 | +4 | 22 |
| 11 | Korona Kielce | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 18 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Korona Kielce
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 15% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Piast Gliwice vs Korona Kielce
- 1 May 2026Korona Kielce 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 31 October 2025Piast Gliwice 0–0 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 19 April 2025Piast Gliwice 1–1 Korona KielceEkstraklasa
- 18 October 2024Korona Kielce 0–2 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
- 13 July 2024Piast Gliwice 3–0 Korona KielceFriendlies Clubs
- 5 May 2024Korona Kielce 1–1 Piast GliwiceEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Piast Gliwice and Korona Kielce
Piast Gliwice
GoalsAssists
- Hugo Vallejo51
Korona Kielce
GoalsAssists
- M. Stępiński60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Piast Gliwice a 0.5% chance of the title and Korona Kielce 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Piast Gliwice v Korona Kielce has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 50% / 26% / 24% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 51% / 27% / 22%: the biggest move is Korona Kielce's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Piast Gliwice win51%▲ +1
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Korona Kielce win22%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Piast Gliwice the highest probability at 51%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Piast Gliwice against 0.93 for Korona Kielce. Piast Gliwice's attack/defence rating is 0.84/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.22 for Korona Kielce.
How the model reaches 51% for Piast Gliwice to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Piast Gliwice to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Piast Gliwice's ratings add 6 points and Korona Kielce's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 51%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level42%−2
- Piast Gliwice's ratings48%+6
- Korona Kielce's ratings51%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Piast Gliwice at home · Korona Kielce away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Piast GliwiceKorona Kielce
Piast Gliwice are 7th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 5th and 18th so far); Korona Kielce are 11th after 14 (between 5th and 18th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Piast Gliwice 14, Korona Kielce 14.
Piast Gliwice score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Korona Kielce have let in 8 there.
Korona Kielce score most often in the 16–30 minute window (6 goals); Piast Gliwice have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Piast Gliwice
- at Raków Częstochowa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Jagiellonia5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- vs Zaglebie Lubin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- at Wisla Krakow30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Lech Poznan6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Korona Kielce
- vs Cracovia Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- at Wieczysta Kraków5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Jagiellonia12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Gornik Zabrze30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- at Legia Warszawa6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 19%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.