Étoile Carouge
vs
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: Étoile Carouge 0–1 Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
The model makes it 26% Étoile Carouge, 30% draw, 44% Stade Lausanne-Ouchy — fair odds of 3.85, 3.33 and 2.27.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Étoile Carouge 0.92, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 1.34.
Both teams to score: 45%. Over 2.5 goals: 39%, under 2.5: 61%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
One-sided: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Étoile Carouge's rating is built from 49 Challenge League matches and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Étoile Carouge are 7th on 14 points from 13 games; Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are top on 31 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
- Étoile Carouge are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to FC Winterthur.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy are unbeaten in their last 5 games (3 won), most recently a 5-1 win away to Stade Nyonnais.
- Last 6 meetings: Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 4 wins to 1, 1 draw; the most recent, 16 October 2026, ended Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile Carouge.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Has the model earned this number?
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy at 44%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Étoile Carouge
Challenge League
- D2-2away to FC Winterthur7 November 2026
- D2-2SC Kriens30 October 2026
- W2-1away to FC Aarau24 October 2026
- L0-2Yverdon Sport9 October 2026
- L1-4away to SC Kriens18 September 2026
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
Challenge League
- W5-1away to Stade Nyonnais6 November 2026
- W3-2Yverdon Sport30 October 2026
- D0-0Neuchatel Xamax FC23 October 2026
- W3-0away to Rapperswil9 October 2026
- D0-0away to Yverdon Sport20 September 2026
What these results say
- Étoile Carouge conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Étoile Carouge scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Étoile Carouge | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 14 | 19 | -5 | 14 |
| 1 | Stade Lausanne-Ouchy | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 28 | 6 | +22 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Étoile Carouge vs Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- 16 October 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile CarougeSchweizer Cup
- 1 September 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 3–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 10 April 2026Étoile Carouge 1–1 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 28 February 2026Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 0–1 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
- 19 December 2025Étoile Carouge 1–2 Stade Lausanne-OuchyChallenge League
- 30 August 2025Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 2–0 Étoile CarougeChallenge League
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Étoile Carouge a 0% chance of the title and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 93.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Stade Lausanne-Ouchy the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Étoile Carouge against 1.34 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy. Étoile Carouge's attack/defence rating is 0.4/2.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.55/1.41 for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy.
How the model reaches 44% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Étoile Carouge's ratings add 7 points and Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- Both sides at this match's level28%−1
- Étoile Carouge's ratings35%+7
- Stade Lausanne-Ouchy's ratings44%+9
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Étoile Carouge at home · Stade Lausanne-Ouchy away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: Étoile Carouge 13, Stade Lausanne-Ouchy 13.
Étoile Carouge score most often in the 46–60 minute window (3 goals); Stade Lausanne-Ouchy have let in 2 there.
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Étoile Carouge have let in 4 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Étoile Carouge
- at FC WIL 19006 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 29%
- vs Stade Nyonnais11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 57%
- at Rapperswil18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 31%
Stade Lausanne-Ouchy
- vs FC Winterthur5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%
- vs FC Aarau11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 59%
- at FC WIL 190018 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 46%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.