Wieczysta Kraków
vs
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wieczysta Kraków 2–1 Motor Lublin
The model makes it 39% Wieczysta Kraków, 25% draw, 36% Motor Lublin — fair odds of 2.56, 4.00 and 2.78.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Wieczysta Kraków 1.80, Motor Lublin 1.69.
Both teams to score: 69%. Over 2.5 goals: 68%, under 2.5: 32%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Wieczysta Kraków's rating is built from 14 Ekstraklasa matches and Motor Lublin's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Wieczysta Kraków are bottom on 8 points from 14 games; Motor Lublin are 10th on 19 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wieczysta Kraków have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Gornik Zabrze.
- Motor Lublin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 3-2 win at home to Wisla Plock.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin
Has the model earned this number?
Wieczysta Kraków at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wieczysta Kraków vs Motor Lublin
Wieczysta Kraków
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2away to Gornik Zabrze7 November 2026
- L1-3Jagiellonia31 October 2026
- L0-2away to Slask Wroclaw25 October 2026
- L1-2Raków Częstochowa16 October 2026
- L1-2away to GKS Katowice12 October 2026
Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa
- W3-2Wisla Plock6 November 2026
- W2-1away to Cracovia Krakow30 October 2026
- D2-2Zaglebie Lubin23 October 2026
- W3-2Slask Wroclaw17 October 2026
- W3-2away to Radomiak Radom12 October 2026
What these results say
- Wieczysta Kraków did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Wieczysta Kraków scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Motor Lublin conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Wieczysta Kraków | 14 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 18 | 28 | -10 | 8 |
| 10 | Motor Lublin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 22 | 24 | -2 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wieczysta Kraków
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 67% today
Motor Lublin
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 7% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Leading scorers: Wieczysta Kraków and Motor Lublin
Wieczysta Kraków
GoalsAssists
- Lucas Piazón42
Motor Lublin
GoalsAssists
- K. Czubak70
- M. Ndiaye43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Motor Lublin (10th, with Wieczysta Kraków 18th), while our numbers lean to Wieczysta Kraków. Wieczysta Kraków rate 0.75 in attack and 1.54 in defence, Motor Lublin 0.86 and 1.44 (lower is better in defence): close enough that playing at home is what tips the call.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wieczysta Kraków a 0% chance of the title and Motor Lublin 0.1%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wieczysta Kraków the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków against 1.69 for Motor Lublin. Wieczysta Kraków's attack/defence rating is 0.75/1.54 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.86/1.44 for Motor Lublin.
How the model reaches 39% for Wieczysta Kraków to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Wieczysta Kraków to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides adds 2 points, Wieczysta Kraków's ratings take away 4 points and Motor Lublin's ratings take away 3 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level46%+2
- Wieczysta Kraków's ratings42%−4
- Motor Lublin's ratings39%−3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wieczysta Kraków at home · Motor Lublin away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Wieczysta KrakówMotor Lublin
Wieczysta Kraków are 18th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 12th and 18th so far); Motor Lublin are 10th after 14 (between 6th and 16th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wieczysta Kraków 14, Motor Lublin 14.
Wieczysta Kraków score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Motor Lublin have let in 1 there.
Motor Lublin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Wieczysta Kraków have let in 13 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wieczysta Kraków
- at Legia Warszawa28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- vs Korona Kielce5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 42%
- vs Radomiak Radom12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 45%
- at Lech Poznan30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 10%
- vs GKS Katowice6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 32%
Motor Lublin
- at Wisla Krakow28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Lech Poznan5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Widzew Łódź12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- at Jagiellonia30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- vs Pogon Szczecin6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.