Raków Częstochowa
vs
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Widzew Łódź
The model makes it 46% Raków Częstochowa, 25% draw, 29% Widzew Łódź — fair odds of 2.17, 4.00 and 3.45.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Raków Częstochowa 1.82, Widzew Łódź 1.33.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 61%, under 2.5: 39%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Raków Częstochowa's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Widzew Łódź's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Raków Częstochowa are 16th on 12 points from 14 games; Widzew Łódź are 13th on 14 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Raków Częstochowa have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-2 win away to Legia Warszawa.
- Widzew Łódź have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to Pogon Szczecin.
- Last 6 meetings: Raków Częstochowa 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 4 April 2026, ended Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Widzew Łódź.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
Has the model earned this number?
Raków Częstochowa at 46%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
Ekstraklasa
- W4-2away to Legia Warszawa8 November 2026
- W3-1Pogon Szczecin2 November 2026
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow24 October 2026
- W2-1away to Wieczysta Kraków16 October 2026
- L1-4GKS Katowice9 October 2026
Widzew Łódź
Ekstraklasa
- W3-0Pogon Szczecin7 November 2026
- L2-3away to GKS Katowice31 October 2026
- D1-1Gornik Zabrze23 October 2026
- D0-0Wisla Krakow16 October 2026
- L1-2away to Piast Gliwice11 October 2026
What these results say
- Raków Częstochowa scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Raków Częstochowa conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Raków Częstochowa had three goals or more.
- Widzew Łódź failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Widzew Łódź scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Raków Częstochowa | 14 | 4 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 31 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 | Widzew Łódź | 14 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 20 | 19 | +1 | 14 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Raków Częstochowa
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 19% today
Widzew Łódź
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 14% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Raków Częstochowa vs Widzew Łódź
- 4 April 2026Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 28 September 2025Widzew Łódź 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 24 May 2025Raków Częstochowa 2–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
- 30 November 2024Widzew Łódź 2–3 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 27 April 2024Widzew Łódź 0–1 Raków CzęstochowaEkstraklasa
- 29 October 2023Raków Częstochowa 1–1 Widzew ŁódźEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Raków Częstochowa and Widzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa
GoalsAssists
- P. Makuch81
Widzew Łódź
GoalsAssists
- K. Świderski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Widzew Łódź (13th, with Raków Częstochowa 16th), while our numbers lean to Raków Częstochowa. Raków Częstochowa rate 0.99 in attack and 1.43 in defence, Widzew Łódź 0.73 and 1.10 (lower is better in defence), so Raków Częstochowa have been the better side in attack on recent expected goals, which the 2-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.
How the call on Raków Częstochowa v Widzew Łódź has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 42% / 27% / 31% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 46% / 25% / 29%: the biggest move is Raków Częstochowa's chance of winning, up 4 points.
- Raków Częstochowa win46%▲ +4
- Draw25%▼ −2
- Widzew Łódź win29%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Raków Częstochowa the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for Raków Częstochowa against 1.33 for Widzew Łódź. Raków Częstochowa's attack/defence rating is 0.99/1.43 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.1 for Widzew Łódź.
How the model reaches 46% for Raków Częstochowa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Raków Częstochowa to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, Raków Częstochowa's ratings add 3 points and Widzew Łódź's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Raków Częstochowa's ratings47%+3
- Widzew Łódź's ratings46%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Raków Częstochowa at home · Widzew Łódź away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Raków CzęstochowaWidzew Łódź
Raków Częstochowa are 16th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 14th and 18th so far); Widzew Łódź are 13th after 14 (between 7th and 14th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Raków Częstochowa 14, Widzew Łódź 14.
Raków Częstochowa score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Widzew Łódź have let in 5 there.
Widzew Łódź score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); Raków Częstochowa have let in 6 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Raków Częstochowa
- vs Piast Gliwice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- at Radomiak Radom5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Wisla Plock12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- vs Slask Wroclaw30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 57%
- at Zaglebie Lubin6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 30%
Widzew Łódź
- vs Zaglebie Lubin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 41%
- at Cracovia Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Motor Lublin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- vs Wisla Plock30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- vs Jagiellonia6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 40%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.