Regular Season - 16 · 27 November 2026, 19:30 UTC

Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock Ekstraklasa prediction

Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla, Zabrze

Our model says: Gornik Zabrze 1–0 Wisla Plock

The model makes it 58% Gornik Zabrze, 26% draw, 16% Wisla Plock — fair odds of 1.72, 3.85 and 6.25.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (15%).

Expected goals: Gornik Zabrze 1.75, Wisla Plock 0.68.

Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.

Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,130 settled matches.

One-sided: Gornik Zabrze are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.

Published 13 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. Gornik Zabrze's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Wisla Plock's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.

Key facts

Gornik Zabrze are 2nd on 31 points from 14 games; Wisla Plock are 12th on 15 points from 13 games — Ekstraklasa.
Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
Wisla Plock are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Motor Lublin.
Last 6 meetings: Gornik Zabrze 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 16 May 2026, ended Wisla Plock 0–1 Gornik Zabrze.

More Ekstraklasa predictions

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock

41%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

56%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Gornik Zabrze win Draw Wisla Plock win

1–015%
2–013%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
0–15%

Scores read Gornik Zabrze first; the other scorelines share the remaining 29%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Gornik Zabrze at 58%: of 1,625 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.5% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock

Gornik Zabrze

Ekstraklasa

W2-1Wieczysta Kraków7 November 2026
D0-0Legia Warszawa30 October 2026
D1-1away to Widzew Łódź23 October 2026
D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026

Wisla Plock

Ekstraklasa

L2-3away to Motor Lublin6 November 2026
D2-2Piast Gliwice31 October 2026
L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 October 2026
W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026

What these results say

Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Gornik Zabrze conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Wisla Plock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Ekstraklasa table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
2	Gornik Zabrze	14	9	4	1	23	12	+11	31
12	Wisla Plock	13	4	3	6	14	21	-7	15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Gornik Zabrze vs Wisla Plock

16 May 2026Wisla Plock 0–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
21 November 2025Gornik Zabrze 1–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
17 March 2023Gornik Zabrze 3–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
5 September 2022Wisla Plock 1–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
4 April 2022Wisla Plock 3–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
2 October 2021Gornik Zabrze 4–2 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa

Leading scorers: Gornik Zabrze and Wisla Plock

Gornik Zabrze

GoalsAssists

K. UrbaÅski51

Wisla Plock

No player in Ekstraklasa's leading scorers — 14 league goals as a side.

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Gornik Zabrze a 15.9% chance of the title and Wisla Plock 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Gornik Zabrze Wisla Plock

0.82 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61

0.88 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.28

1.75 Model expected goals (this match) 0.68

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 58%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Gornik Zabrze against 0.68 for Wisla Plock. Gornik Zabrze's attack/defence rating is 0.82/0.88 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.28 for Wisla Plock.

Gornik Zabrze carry a model rating of 6.83 against 6.49 for Wisla Plock.

How the model reaches 58% for Gornik Zabrze to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Gornik Zabrze to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Gornik Zabrze's ratings add 8 points and Wisla Plock's ratings add 9 points, which lands on the published 58%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage44%+7
Both sides at this match's level41%−3
Gornik Zabrze's ratings49%+8
Wisla Plock's ratings58%+9

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Gornik ZabrzeModelWisla Plock

Over 1.5 goals

70%

7 of 10 games

70%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

40%

4 of 10 games

44%

model, this match

50%

5 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

10%

1 of 10 games

23%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Both teams score

60%

6 of 10 games

41%

model, this match

40%

4 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Gornik ZabrzeWisla Plock

14Matches13

9W 4D 1LRecord4W 3D 6L

23 1.6 per gameGoals scored14 1.1 per game

12 0.9 per gameGoals conceded21 1.6 per game

4 of 14Clean sheets3 of 13

2 of 14Failed to score5 of 13

3 of 3Penalties scored–

33 2.4 per gameYellow cards22 1.7 per game

1Red cards1

4-3-3 7×Usual shape3-4-3 9×

Gornik Zabrze at home · Wisla Plock away

7Played8

4W 2D 1LRecord2W 1D 5L

11–8Goals for – against8–16

1 of 7Clean sheets1 of 8

League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Gornik ZabrzeWisla Plock

Gornik Zabrze are 2nd after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); Wisla Plock are 12th after 13 (between 1st and 16th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Gornik Zabrze 14, Wisla Plock 13.

Gornik Zabrze scored 225328

Wisla Plock conceded 234354

Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 4 there.

Wisla Plock scored 214321

Gornik Zabrze conceded 312133

Wisla Plock score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 2 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 4 matches, by difficulty

Gornik Zabrze

at Pogon Szczecin6 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
at Slask Wroclaw12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 46%
vs Korona Kielce30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 56%
vs Radomiak Radom6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 60%

Wisla Plock

vs Slask Wroclaw7 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
vs Raków Częstochowa12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
vs Lech Poznan17 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 20%
at Widzew Łódź30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 22%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.