Pogon Szczecin
vs
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Pogon Szczecin 2–1 Slask Wroclaw
The model makes it 54% Pogon Szczecin, 25% draw, 21% Slask Wroclaw — fair odds of 1.85, 4.00 and 4.76.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 1.90, Slask Wroclaw 1.00.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 55%, under 2.5: 45%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Pogon Szczecin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Pogon Szczecin's rating is built from 47 Ekstraklasa matches and Slask Wroclaw's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Pogon Szczecin are 4th on 24 points from 13 games; Slask Wroclaw are 17th on 10 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Pogon Szczecin have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat away to Widzew Łódź.
- Slask Wroclaw have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-0 draw at home to Piast Gliwice.
- Last 6 meetings: Slask Wroclaw 3 wins to 2, 1 draw; the most recent, 3 September 2026, ended Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Pogon Szczecin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
Has the model earned this number?
Pogon Szczecin at 54%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
Pogon Szczecin
Ekstraklasa
- L0-3away to Widzew Łódź7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Raków Częstochowa2 November 2026
- W4-3Radomiak Radom24 October 2026
- W1-0away to GKS Katowice17 October 2026
- W2-0Korona Kielce11 October 2026
Slask Wroclaw
Ekstraklasa
- D0-0Piast Gliwice7 November 2026
- L1-3away to Radomiak Radom2 November 2026
- W2-0Wieczysta Kraków25 October 2026
- L2-3away to Motor Lublin17 October 2026
- L1-4Lech Poznan10 October 2026
What these results say
- Pogon Szczecin scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Slask Wroclaw scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 20 | 15 | +5 | 24 |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Pogon Szczecin
Chance to finish in the top two · 9% today
Slask Wroclaw
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 63% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Pogon Szczecin vs Slask Wroclaw
- 3 September 2026Slask Wroclaw 2–1 Pogon SzczecinCup
- 7 March 2025Slask Wroclaw 1–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 1 September 2024Pogon Szczecin 5–3 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 11 February 2024Slask Wroclaw 0–1 Pogon SzczecinEkstraklasa
- 30 August 2023Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
- 5 February 2023Pogon Szczecin 0–2 Slask WroclawEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Pogon Szczecin and Slask Wroclaw
Pogon Szczecin
GoalsAssists
- Jordi Sánchez91
Slask Wroclaw
GoalsAssists
- P. Banaszak50
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Pogon Szczecin a 1.2% chance of the title and Slask Wroclaw 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Pogon Szczecin v Slask Wroclaw has moved
First published on 6 Nov at 57% / 23% / 20% (home / draw / away). After 3 updates it reads 54% / 25% / 21%: the biggest move is Pogon Szczecin's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Pogon Szczecin win54%▼ −3
- Draw25%▲ +2
- Slask Wroclaw win21%▲ +1
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Pogon Szczecin the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Pogon Szczecin against 1.00 for Slask Wroclaw. Pogon Szczecin's attack/defence rating is 0.79/1.14 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.69/1.44 for Slask Wroclaw.
How the model reaches 54% for Pogon Szczecin to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Pogon Szczecin to win. Then home advantage adds 7 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Pogon Szczecin's ratings add 5 points and Slask Wroclaw's ratings add 6 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage44%+7
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Pogon Szczecin's ratings48%+5
- Slask Wroclaw's ratings54%+6
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Pogon Szczecin at home · Slask Wroclaw away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Pogon SzczecinSlask Wroclaw
Pogon Szczecin are 4th after 13 Ekstraklasa matches (between 2nd and 18th so far); Slask Wroclaw are 17th after 14 (between 8th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Pogon Szczecin 13, Slask Wroclaw 14.
Pogon Szczecin score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Slask Wroclaw have let in 5 there.
Slask Wroclaw score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Pogon Szczecin have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Pogon Szczecin
- at Lech Poznan28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 17%
- vs Gornik Zabrze5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- at Legia Warszawa12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 25%
- at Jagiellonia16 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Cracovia Krakow30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 52%
Slask Wroclaw
- vs GKS Katowice28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 31%
- at Wisla Plock5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 29%
- vs Gornik Zabrze12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 26%
- at Raków Częstochowa30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- at Cracovia Krakow6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.