Wisla Plock
vs
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Wisla Plock 0–1 Legia Warszawa
The model makes it 28% Wisla Plock, 29% draw, 43% Legia Warszawa — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.02, Legia Warszawa 1.39.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 43%, under 2.5: 57%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Legia Warszawa: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Wisla Plock's rating is built from 47 Ekstraklasa matches and Legia Warszawa's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Wisla Plock are 12th on 15 points from 13 games; Legia Warszawa are 3rd on 24 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Wisla Plock are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to Motor Lublin.
- Legia Warszawa are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 2-4 defeat at home to Raków Częstochowa.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 21 February 2026, ended Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla Plock.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa
Has the model earned this number?
Legia Warszawa at 43%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa
Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa
- L2-3away to Motor Lublin6 November 2026
- D2-2Piast Gliwice31 October 2026
- L0-1away to Jagiellonia25 October 2026
- W1-0Radomiak Radom19 October 2026
- L0-3away to Wieczysta Kraków9 October 2026
Legia Warszawa
Ekstraklasa
- L2-4Raków Częstochowa8 November 2026
- D0-0away to Gornik Zabrze30 October 2026
- L1-2Lech Poznan25 October 2026
- D1-1away to Cracovia Krakow17 October 2026
- W2-0Wisla Krakow11 October 2026
What these results say
- Wisla Plock failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Plock conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Legia Warszawa scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 15 |
| 3 | Legia Warszawa | 14 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 25 | 15 | +10 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Wisla Plock
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 29% today
Legia Warszawa
Chance to finish in the top two · 14% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Wisla Plock vs Legia Warszawa
- 21 February 2026Legia Warszawa 2–1 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2025Wisla Plock 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 28 April 2023Legia Warszawa 2–0 Wisla PlockEkstraklasa
- 18 October 2022Wisla Plock 0–3 Legia WarszawaCup
- 14 October 2022Wisla Plock 2–1 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
- 12 December 2021Wisla Plock 1–0 Legia WarszawaEkstraklasa
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Wisla Plock a 0% chance of the title and Legia Warszawa 1.8%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Wisla Plock v Legia Warszawa has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 25% / 30% / 45% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 28% / 29% / 43%: the biggest move is Wisla Plock's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Wisla Plock win28%▲ +3
- Draw29%▼ −1
- Legia Warszawa win43%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Legia Warszawa the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Wisla Plock against 1.39 for Legia Warszawa. Wisla Plock's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.28 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.85/1 for Legia Warszawa.
How the model reaches 43% for Legia Warszawa to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Legia Warszawa to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Wisla Plock's ratings add 6 points and Legia Warszawa's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Wisla Plock's ratings35%+6
- Legia Warszawa's ratings43%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Wisla Plock at home · Legia Warszawa away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Wisla PlockLegia Warszawa
Wisla Plock are 12th after 13 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Legia Warszawa are 3rd after 14 (between 1st and 4th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Wisla Plock 13, Legia Warszawa 14.
Wisla Plock score most often in the 31–45 minute window (4 goals); Legia Warszawa have let in 3 there.
Legia Warszawa score most often in the 16–30 minute window (7 goals); Wisla Plock have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Wisla Plock
- at Gornik Zabrze28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 16%
- vs Slask Wroclaw5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 43%
- vs Raków Częstochowa12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Lech Poznan17 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 20%
- at Widzew Łódź30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 22%
Legia Warszawa
- vs Wieczysta Kraków28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 60%
- at GKS Katowice5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 32%
- vs Pogon Szczecin12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 48%
- at Zaglebie Lubin30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 34%
- vs Korona Kielce6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 55%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.