Zaglebie Lubin
vs
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Zaglebie Lubin 0–1 Gornik Zabrze
The model makes it 33% Zaglebie Lubin, 32% draw, 35% Gornik Zabrze — fair odds of 3.03, 3.13 and 2.86.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Zaglebie Lubin 1.00, Gornik Zabrze 1.07.
Both teams to score: 42%. Over 2.5 goals: 34%, under 2.5: 66%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
A tight game: Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Zaglebie Lubin's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Gornik Zabrze's from 48, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Zaglebie Lubin are 6th on 23 points from 14 games; Gornik Zabrze are 2nd on 31 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Zaglebie Lubin are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Lech Poznan.
- Gornik Zabrze are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-1 win at home to Wieczysta Kraków.
- Last 6 meetings: Zaglebie Lubin 5 wins to 1, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 May 2026, ended Gornik Zabrze 0–2 Zaglebie Lubin.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
Has the model earned this number?
Gornik Zabrze at 35%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Lubin
Ekstraklasa
- D2-2away to Lech Poznan8 November 2026
- W1-0Korona Kielce2 November 2026
- D2-2away to Motor Lublin23 October 2026
- W1-0Jagiellonia18 October 2026
- L1-3away to Cracovia Krakow10 October 2026
Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa
- W2-1Wieczysta Kraków7 November 2026
- D0-0Legia Warszawa30 October 2026
- D1-1away to Widzew Łódź23 October 2026
- D1-1Piast Gliwice18 October 2026
- W3-1away to Jagiellonia10 October 2026
What these results say
- Zaglebie Lubin scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Gornik Zabrze conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Zaglebie Lubin | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 18 | 17 | +1 | 23 |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 14 | 9 | 4 | 1 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 31 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Zaglebie Lubin
Chance to finish in the top two · 3% today
Gornik Zabrze
Chance to finish in the top two · 59% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Zaglebie Lubin vs Gornik Zabrze
- 9 May 2026Gornik Zabrze 0–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 7 November 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–0 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 11 April 2025Zaglebie Lubin 2–1 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 5 October 2024Gornik Zabrze 0–1 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
- 8 April 2024Zaglebie Lubin 1–2 Gornik ZabrzeEkstraklasa
- 2 October 2023Gornik Zabrze 0–2 Zaglebie LubinEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Zaglebie Lubin and Gornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Lubin
GoalsAssists
- M. Reguła50
Gornik Zabrze
GoalsAssists
- K. UrbaÅski51
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Zaglebie Lubin a 0.3% chance of the title and Gornik Zabrze 15.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Gornik Zabrze the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Zaglebie Lubin against 1.07 for Gornik Zabrze. Zaglebie Lubin's attack/defence rating is 0.68/1.02 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/0.88 for Gornik Zabrze.
How the model reaches 35% for Gornik Zabrze to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Gornik Zabrze to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Zaglebie Lubin's ratings add 4 points and Gornik Zabrze's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level28%−2
- Zaglebie Lubin's ratings32%+4
- Gornik Zabrze's ratings35%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Zaglebie Lubin at home · Gornik Zabrze away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Zaglebie LubinGornik Zabrze
Zaglebie Lubin are 6th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 8th so far); Gornik Zabrze are 2nd after 14 (between 1st and 3rd). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Zaglebie Lubin 14, Gornik Zabrze 14.
Zaglebie Lubin score most often in the 76–90 minute window (7 goals); Gornik Zabrze have let in 3 there.
Gornik Zabrze score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Zaglebie Lubin have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Zaglebie Lubin
- at Widzew Łódź28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Wisla Krakow5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 40%
- at Piast Gliwice12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Legia Warszawa30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Raków Częstochowa6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 43%
Gornik Zabrze
- vs Wisla Plock28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 58%
- at Pogon Szczecin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Slask Wroclaw12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 46%
- vs Korona Kielce30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 56%
- vs Radomiak Radom6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 60%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.