Cracovia Krakow
vs
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Cracovia Krakow 0–1 Jagiellonia
The model makes it 33% Cracovia Krakow, 29% draw, 38% Jagiellonia — fair odds of 3.03, 3.45 and 2.63.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Cracovia Krakow 1.22, Jagiellonia 1.35.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Jagiellonia: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Cracovia Krakow's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Jagiellonia's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Cracovia Krakow are 15th on 12 points from 14 games; Jagiellonia are 9th on 21 points from 13 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Cracovia Krakow are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat away to Wisla Krakow.
- Jagiellonia are unbeaten in 3 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to GKS Katowice.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2026, ended Cracovia Krakow 0–0 Jagiellonia.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Has the model earned this number?
Jagiellonia at 38%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow
Ekstraklasa
- L1-2away to Wisla Krakow6 November 2026
- L1-2Motor Lublin30 October 2026
- L1-3away to Piast Gliwice24 October 2026
- D1-1Legia Warszawa17 October 2026
- W3-1Zaglebie Lubin10 October 2026
Jagiellonia
Ekstraklasa
- W1-0GKS Katowice8 November 2026
- W3-1away to Wieczysta Kraków31 October 2026
- W1-0Wisla Plock25 October 2026
- L0-1away to Zaglebie Lubin18 October 2026
- L1-3Gornik Zabrze10 October 2026
What these results say
- Cracovia Krakow scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Cracovia Krakow conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in every one of these 5 matches for Cracovia Krakow.
- Jagiellonia scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Cracovia Krakow | 14 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 16 | 23 | -7 | 12 |
| 9 | Jagiellonia | 13 | 7 | 0 | 6 | 18 | 18 | 0 | 21 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Cracovia Krakow
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 45% today
Jagiellonia
Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Cracovia Krakow vs Jagiellonia
- 14 February 2026Cracovia Krakow 0–0 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 10 August 2025Jagiellonia 5–2 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 23 February 2025Cracovia Krakow 2–2 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
- 17 August 2024Jagiellonia 2–4 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 14 April 2024Jagiellonia 1–3 Cracovia KrakowEkstraklasa
- 8 October 2023Cracovia Krakow 2–4 JagielloniaEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Cracovia Krakow and Jagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow
GoalsAssists
- A. Hasić72
Jagiellonia
GoalsAssists
- N. Prelec42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Cracovia Krakow a 0% chance of the title and Jagiellonia 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Jagiellonia the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Cracovia Krakow against 1.35 for Jagiellonia. Cracovia Krakow's attack/defence rating is 0.65/1.31 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1.12 for Jagiellonia.
How the model reaches 38% for Jagiellonia to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Jagiellonia to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Cracovia Krakow's ratings add 5 points and Jagiellonia's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 38%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Cracovia Krakow's ratings34%+5
- Jagiellonia's ratings38%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Cracovia Krakow at home · Jagiellonia away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Cracovia KrakowJagiellonia
Cracovia Krakow are 15th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 4th and 15th so far); Jagiellonia are 9th after 13 (between 1st and 12th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Cracovia Krakow 14, Jagiellonia 13.
Cracovia Krakow score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Jagiellonia have let in 2 there.
Jagiellonia score most often in the 76–90 minute window (8 goals); Cracovia Krakow have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Cracovia Krakow
- at Korona Kielce28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Widzew Łódź5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 35%
- vs Lech Poznan12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- at Pogon Szczecin30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 22%
- vs Slask Wroclaw6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 44%
Jagiellonia
- at Sunderland26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 27%
- vs Radomiak Radom28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 55%
- at Piast Gliwice5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs Crystal Palace10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 46%
- at Korona Kielce12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 37%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.