SC Kriens
vs
FC Aarau
Challenge League prediction
Our model says: SC Kriens 2–1 FC Aarau
The model makes it 47% SC Kriens, 26% draw, 27% FC Aarau — fair odds of 2.13, 3.85 and 3.70.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: SC Kriens 1.82, FC Aarau 1.27.
Both teams to score: 61%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,921 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 13 November 2026. SC Kriens's rating is built from 13 Challenge League matches and FC Aarau's from 49, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- SC Kriens are 4th on 19 points from 13 games; FC Aarau are 6th on 15 points from 13 games — Challenge League.
- SC Kriens have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to Rapperswil.
- FC Aarau have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to FC WIL 1900.
- Last 6 meetings: FC Aarau 4 wins to 0, 2 draws; the most recent, 12 September 2026, ended FC Aarau 2–2 SC Kriens.
More Challenge League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: SC Kriens vs FC Aarau
Has the model earned this number?
SC Kriens at 47%: of 2,926 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into SC Kriens vs FC Aarau
SC Kriens
Challenge League
- W1-0Rapperswil6 November 2026
- D2-2away to Étoile Carouge30 October 2026
- L2-5away to Yverdon Sport25 October 2026
- D1-1FC WIL 19009 October 2026
- W4-1Étoile Carouge18 September 2026
FC Aarau
Challenge League
- L0-3FC WIL 19006 November 2026
- W3-1away to Neuchatel Xamax FC30 October 2026
- L1-2Étoile Carouge24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Stade Nyonnais9 October 2026
- L1-2away to FC Winterthur18 September 2026
What these results say
- SC Kriens scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- SC Kriens conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Both sides scored in 4 of these 5 matches for SC Kriens.
- FC Aarau conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for FC Aarau had three goals or more.
- FC Aarau failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Challenge League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | SC Kriens | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 19 |
| 6 | FC Aarau | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 24 | -5 | 15 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: SC Kriens vs FC Aarau
- 12 September 2026FC Aarau 2–2 SC KriensChallenge League
- 29 June 2024FC Aarau 3–3 SC KriensFriendlies Clubs
- 25 June 2022FC Aarau 3–1 SC KriensFriendlies Clubs
- 23 April 2022FC Aarau 3–2 SC KriensChallenge League
- 19 February 2022SC Kriens 0–5 FC AarauChallenge League
- 14 December 2021SC Kriens 1–2 FC AarauChallenge League
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives SC Kriens the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.82 expected goals for SC Kriens against 1.27 for FC Aarau. SC Kriens's attack/defence rating is 0.49/2.07 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.28 for FC Aarau.
How the model reaches 47% for SC Kriens to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for SC Kriens to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, SC Kriens's ratings add 1 point and FC Aarau's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 47%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level45%+1
- SC Kriens's ratings46%+1
- FC Aarau's ratings47%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
SC Kriens at home · FC Aarau away
League matches only, Challenge League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Challenge League matches this season: SC Kriens 13, FC Aarau 13.
SC Kriens score most often in the 61–75 minute window (7 goals); FC Aarau have let in 4 there.
FC Aarau score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); SC Kriens have let in 1 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
SC Kriens
- at Stade Nyonnais4 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
- at FC Winterthur12 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 20%
- vs Neuchatel Xamax FC19 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 47%
FC Aarau
- vs Yverdon Sport5 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 35%
- at Stade Lausanne-Ouchy11 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 17%
- vs FC Winterthur18 Dec · Challenge Leaguewin 33%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.