Radomiak Radom
vs
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa prediction
Our model says: Radomiak Radom 1–2 Wisla Krakow
The model makes it 34% Radomiak Radom, 27% draw, 39% Wisla Krakow — fair odds of 2.94, 3.70 and 2.56.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: Radomiak Radom 1.46, Wisla Krakow 1.60.
Both teams to score: 62%. Over 2.5 goals: 59%, under 2.5: 41%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.
Edge to Wisla Krakow: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Radomiak Radom's rating is built from 48 Ekstraklasa matches and Wisla Krakow's from 14, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 736 matches.
Key facts
- Radomiak Radom are 14th on 14 points from 14 games; Wisla Krakow are 5th on 24 points from 14 games — Ekstraklasa.
- Radomiak Radom have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win away to Korona Kielce.
- Wisla Krakow have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Cracovia Krakow.
- Last 2 meetings: Radomiak Radom 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 15 May 2022, ended Radomiak Radom 4–2 Wisla Krakow.
More Ekstraklasa predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow
Has the model earned this number?
Wisla Krakow at 39%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow
Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa
- W2-0away to Korona Kielce7 November 2026
- W3-1Slask Wroclaw2 November 2026
- L3-4away to Pogon Szczecin24 October 2026
- L0-1away to Wisla Plock19 October 2026
- L2-3Motor Lublin12 October 2026
Wisla Krakow
Ekstraklasa
- W2-1Cracovia Krakow6 November 2026
- L1-3away to Lech Poznan31 October 2026
- W2-1Raków Częstochowa24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Widzew Łódź16 October 2026
- L0-2away to Legia Warszawa11 October 2026
What these results say
- Radomiak Radom scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Radomiak Radom conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Wisla Krakow conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Ekstraklasa table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 | Radomiak Radom | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 14 |
| 5 | Wisla Krakow | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 22 | 19 | +3 | 24 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Radomiak Radom
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 39% today
Wisla Krakow
Chance to finish in the top two · 6% today
From our Ekstraklasa season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Radomiak Radom vs Wisla Krakow
- 15 May 2022Radomiak Radom 4–2 Wisla KrakowEkstraklasa
- 26 November 2021Wisla Krakow 0–1 Radomiak RadomEkstraklasa
Leading scorers: Radomiak Radom and Wisla Krakow
Radomiak Radom
GoalsAssists
- J. Grzesik53
Wisla Krakow
GoalsAssists
- Ángel Rodado41
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Radomiak Radom a 0% chance of the title and Wisla Krakow 0.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Radomiak Radom v Wisla Krakow has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 32% / 26% / 42% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 34% / 27% / 39%: the biggest move is Wisla Krakow's chance of winning, down 3 points.
- Radomiak Radom win34%▲ +2
- Draw27%▲ +1
- Wisla Krakow win39%▼ −3
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Wisla Krakow the highest probability at 39%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Radomiak Radom against 1.60 for Wisla Krakow. Radomiak Radom's attack/defence rating is 0.76/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.82/1.15 for Wisla Krakow.
How the model reaches 39% for Wisla Krakow to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Wisla Krakow to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, Radomiak Radom's ratings add 5 points and Wisla Krakow's ratings add 4 points, which lands on the published 39%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Radomiak Radom's ratings35%+5
- Wisla Krakow's ratings39%+4
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Radomiak Radom at home · Wisla Krakow away
League matches only, Ekstraklasa, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
Radomiak RadomWisla Krakow
Radomiak Radom are 14th after 14 Ekstraklasa matches (between 1st and 16th so far); Wisla Krakow are 5th after 14 (between 2nd and 8th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Ekstraklasa matches this season: Radomiak Radom 14, Wisla Krakow 14.
Radomiak Radom score most often in the 61–75 minute window (5 goals); Wisla Krakow have let in 3 there.
Wisla Krakow score most often in the 46–60 minute window (8 goals); Radomiak Radom have let in 8 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Radomiak Radom
- at Jagiellonia28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 21%
- vs Raków Częstochowa5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 36%
- at Wieczysta Kraków12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- vs GKS Katowice30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 33%
- at Gornik Zabrze6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 17%
Wisla Krakow
- vs Motor Lublin28 Nov · Ekstraklasawin 50%
- at Zaglebie Lubin5 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 30%
- at GKS Katowice12 Dec · Ekstraklasawin 28%
- vs Piast Gliwice30 Jan · Ekstraklasawin 44%
- at Wisla Plock6 Feb · Ekstraklasawin 39%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.