Bradford
vs
Barnsley
League One prediction
Our model says: Bradford 1–0 Barnsley
The model makes it 48% Bradford, 30% draw, 22% Barnsley — fair odds of 2.08, 3.33 and 4.55.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (16%).
Expected goals: Bradford 1.35, Barnsley 0.76.
Both teams to score: 40%. Over 2.5 goals: 35%, under 2.5: 65%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Edge to Bradford: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Bradford's rating is built from 61 League One matches and Barnsley's from 58, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.
Key facts
- Bradford are 7th on 22 points from 13 games; Barnsley are 23rd on 9 points from 12 games — League One.
- Bradford are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 0-3 defeat at home to Huddersfield.
- Barnsley have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Oxford United.
- Last 6 meetings: Barnsley 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 18 April 2026, ended Barnsley 2–2 Bradford.
More League One predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Bradford vs Barnsley
Has the model earned this number?
Bradford at 48%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Bradford vs Barnsley
Bradford
League One
- L0-3Huddersfield31 October 2026
- D0-0away to Oxford United24 October 2026
- D0-0away to Burton Albion20 October 2026
- W2-0Stevenage17 October 2026
- D0-0Leyton Orient10 October 2026
Barnsley
League One
- D1-1Oxford United31 October 2026
- L1-2away to Reading24 October 2026
- L1-2away to Luton20 October 2026
- L1-2Cambridge United17 October 2026
- L1-3away to Stockport County10 October 2026
What these results say
- Bradford failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bradford failed to score in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Bradford kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley did not win any of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Barnsley conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Bradford | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 22 |
| 23 | Barnsley | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 9 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Bradford
Chance to finish in the top two · 4% today
Barnsley
Chance to finish in the bottom four · 44% today
From our League One season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Bradford vs Barnsley
- 18 April 2026Barnsley 2–2 BradfordLeague One
- 18 October 2025Bradford 2–2 BarnsleyLeague One
- 21 November 2023Bradford 5–1 BarnsleyEFL Trophy
- 12 January 2019Barnsley 3–0 BradfordLeague One
- 13 November 2018Barnsley 2–1 BradfordEFL Trophy
- 11 August 2018Bradford 0–2 BarnsleyLeague One
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Bradford a 1.2% chance of the title and Barnsley 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Bradford the highest probability at 48%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Bradford against 0.76 for Barnsley. Bradford's attack/defence rating is 0.42/1.2 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.51/2.11 for Barnsley.
How the model reaches 48% for Bradford to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Bradford to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 3 points, Bradford's ratings add 2 points and Barnsley's ratings add 7 points, which lands on the published 48%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage42%+6
- Both sides at this match's level39%−3
- Bradford's ratings41%+2
- Barnsley's ratings48%+7
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Bradford at home · Barnsley away
League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All League One matches this season: Bradford 13, Barnsley 12.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Bradford
- at Wycombe28 Nov · League Onewin 31%
- vs Milton Keynes Dons1 Dec · League Onewin 41%
- vs AFC Wimbledon12 Dec · League Onewin 51%
Barnsley
- at AFC Wimbledon28 Nov · League Onewin 36%
- vs Wycombe1 Dec · League Onewin 35%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.