Regular Season - 8 · 24 November 2026, 19:45 UTC

Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday League One prediction

SPORTA Arena, Stevenage

Our model says: Stevenage 1–0 Sheffield Wednesday

The model makes it 37% Stevenage, 30% draw, 33% Sheffield Wednesday — fair odds of 2.70, 3.33 and 3.03.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Stevenage 1.23, Sheffield Wednesday 1.12.

Both teams to score: 48%. Over 2.5 goals: 42%, under 2.5: 58%.

Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 1,304 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published · updated

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Stevenage's rating is built from 60 League One matches and Sheffield Wednesday's from 13, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 1,272 matches.

Key facts

  • Stevenage are 16th on 16 points from 12 games; Sheffield Wednesday are 9th on 20 points from 13 games — League One.
  • Stevenage have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-2 draw away to Leicester.
  • Sheffield Wednesday are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to Blackpool.
  • Last 2 meetings: Stevenage 2 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 14 February 2012, ended Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 Stevenage.

More League One predictions

All League One predictions →

Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday

48%
Both teams to score
42%
Over 2.5 goals
58%
Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Stevenage win Draw Sheffield Wednesday win
  1. 1–114%
  2. 1–011%
  3. 0–010%
  4. 0–110%
  5. 2–18%
  6. 1–27%
  7. 2–07%

Scores read Stevenage first; the other scorelines share the remaining 32%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Stevenage at 37%: of 4,756 settled 30–40% forecasts, 33.3% came in (average 33.7%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday

Stevenage

League One

  • D2-2away to Leicester31 October 2026
  • L0-1Milton Keynes Dons24 October 2026
  • W3-0Plymouth20 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Bradford17 October 2026
  • W1-0Wigan10 October 2026

Sheffield Wednesday

League One

  • D1-1Blackpool1 November 2026
  • D1-1Cambridge United27 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Doncaster24 October 2026
  • L0-2away to Notts County20 October 2026
  • W5-0AFC Wimbledon17 October 2026

What these results say

  • Sheffield Wednesday failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
  • Sheffield Wednesday conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
  • 4 of these 5 matches for Sheffield Wednesday had two goals or fewer.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

League One table

#TeamPWDLGFGAGDPts
16Stevenage124441713+416
9Sheffield Wednesday135532214+820

Where the two sides stand. Full table

Head-to-head: Stevenage vs Sheffield Wednesday

  • 14 February 2012Sheffield Wednesday 0–1 StevenageLeague One
  • 13 September 2011Stevenage 5–1 Sheffield WednesdayLeague One

Leading scorers: Stevenage and Sheffield Wednesday

Stevenage

No player in League One's leading scorers — 17 league goals as a side.

Sheffield Wednesday

GoalsAssists

  • J. Lowe52

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

Where the model differs from the table

The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Sheffield Wednesday (9th, with Stevenage 16th), while our numbers lean to Stevenage. Stevenage rate 0.50 in attack and 1.48 in defence, Sheffield Wednesday 0.61 and 1.61 (lower is better in defence), so Stevenage have been the better side in defence on recent expected goals, which the 4-point gap in the table does not yet show. Playing at home adds the rest.

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Stevenage a 0.5% chance of the title and Sheffield Wednesday 1.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Stevenage Sheffield Wednesday
0.5 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.61
1.48 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1.61
1.23 Model expected goals (this match) 1.12

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Stevenage the highest probability at 37%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Stevenage against 1.12 for Sheffield Wednesday. Stevenage's attack/defence rating is 0.5/1.48 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/1.61 for Sheffield Wednesday.

Stevenage carry a model rating of 6.32 against 6.36 for Sheffield Wednesday. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 37% for Stevenage to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Stevenage to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Stevenage's ratings take away 2 points and Sheffield Wednesday's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 37%.

  1. Two average sides, neutral ground36%
  2. Home advantage42%+6
  3. Both sides at this match's level40%−2
  4. Stevenage's ratings38%−2
  5. Sheffield Wednesday's ratings37%−1

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Season stats

StevenageSheffield Wednesday
12Matches13
4W 4D 4LRecord5W 5D 3L
17 1.4 per gameGoals scored22 1.7 per game
13 1.1 per gameGoals conceded14 1.1 per game
3 of 12Clean sheets3 of 13
4 of 12Failed to score5 of 13
–Penalties scored3 of 3
20 1.7 per gameYellow cards27 2.1 per game
0Red cards2
4-4-1-1 1×Usual shape4-2-3-1 9×

Stevenage at home · Sheffield Wednesday away

6Played6
3W 1D 2LRecord3W 1D 2L
9–6Goals for – against8–9
2 of 6Clean sheets0 of 6

League matches only, League One, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All League One matches this season: Stevenage 12, Sheffield Wednesday 13.

Stevenage scored 041426
Sheffield Wednesday conceded 222324

Stevenage score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); Sheffield Wednesday have let in 4 there.

Sheffield Wednesday scored 226425
Stevenage conceded 110056

Sheffield Wednesday score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Stevenage have let in 0 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 3 matches, by difficulty

Stevenage

  • vs Blackpool28 Nov · League Onewin 46%
  • at Huddersfield1 Dec · League Onewin 23%

Sheffield Wednesday

  • vs Reading28 Nov · League Onewin 39%
  • at Oxford United1 Dec · League Onewin 24%
  • at Leicester10 Dec · League Onewin 34%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.