Fortaleza EC
vs
Vila Nova
Serie B prediction
Our model says: Fortaleza EC 1–0 Vila Nova
The model makes it 44% Fortaleza EC, 28% draw, 28% Vila Nova — fair odds of 2.27, 3.57 and 3.57.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Fortaleza EC 1.52, Vila Nova 1.10.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 49%, under 2.5: 51%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,421 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 31 October 2026. Fortaleza EC's rating is built from 35 Brazilian Serie B matches and Vila Nova's from 73, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- Fortaleza EC are 5th on 61 points from 35 games; Vila Nova are 3rd on 62 points from 35 games — Serie B.
- Fortaleza EC are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Ponte Preta.
- Vila Nova have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-3 defeat away to São Bernardo.
- Last 5 meetings: Fortaleza EC 2 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 22 July 2026, ended Vila Nova 2–1 Fortaleza EC.
More Brazilian Serie B predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Has the model earned this number?
Fortaleza EC at 44%: of 2,421 settled 40–50% forecasts, 45.2% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
Serie B
- D2-2away to Ponte Preta24 October 2026
- W2-0away to Sport Recife16 October 2026
- D2-2CRB12 October 2026
- W1-0away to America Mineiro7 October 2026
- D1-1Nautico Recife3 October 2026
Vila Nova
Serie B
- L2-3away to São Bernardo24 October 2026
- D2-2Novorizontino18 October 2026
- W2-0away to Nautico Recife11 October 2026
- D0-0Cuiaba7 October 2026
- W1-0away to Botafogo SP3 October 2026
What these results say
- Fortaleza EC went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Fortaleza EC scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Vila Nova scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Fortaleza EC | 35 | 16 | 13 | 6 | 43 | 31 | +12 | 61 |
| 3 | Vila Nova | 35 | 18 | 8 | 9 | 50 | 36 | +14 | 62 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Fortaleza EC vs Vila Nova
- 22 July 2026Vila Nova 2–1 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 22 September 2018Fortaleza EC 2–0 Vila NovaSerie B
- 6 June 2018Vila Nova 0–0 Fortaleza ECSerie B
- 8 August 2015Vila Nova 0–0 Fortaleza ECSerie C
- 23 May 2015Fortaleza EC 3–2 Vila NovaSerie C
Leading scorers: Fortaleza EC and Vila Nova
Fortaleza EC
GoalsAssists
- Maílton93
Vila Nova
GoalsAssists
- Janderson98
- André Luís92
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
Fortaleza EC carry a model rating of 6.47 against 6.45 for Vila Nova.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.52 goals for Fortaleza EC and 1.10 for Vila Nova.
Fortaleza EC rate 0.62 in attack and 1.34 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Vila Nova rate 0.68 and 1.51.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour Vila Nova, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Fortaleza EC a 2.7% chance of the title and Vila Nova 6.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Fortaleza EC the highest probability at 44%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Fortaleza EC against 1.10 for Vila Nova. Fortaleza EC's attack/defence rating is 0.62/1.34 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.68/1.51 for Vila Nova.
How the model reaches 44% for Fortaleza EC to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Fortaleza EC to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Fortaleza EC's ratings change nothing and Vila Nova's ratings add 1 point, which lands on the published 44%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Both sides at this match's level43%−1
- Fortaleza EC's ratings43%±0
- Vila Nova's ratings44%+1
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Fortaleza EC at home · Vila Nova away
League matches only, Serie B, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Serie B matches this season: Fortaleza EC 35, Vila Nova 35.
Fortaleza EC score most often in the 76–90 minute window (10 goals); Vila Nova have let in 10 there.
Vila Nova score most often in the 61–75 minute window (14 goals); Fortaleza EC have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.