Genk
vs
RAAL La Louvière
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Genk 2–0 RAAL La Louvière
The model makes it 57% Genk, 25% draw, 18% RAAL La Louvière — fair odds of 1.75, 4.00 and 5.56.
Most likely scoreline: 2-0 (11%).
Expected goals: Genk 1.94, RAAL La Louvière 0.87.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 53%, under 2.5: 47%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
Edge to Genk: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Genk's rating is built from 52 Jupiler Pro League matches and RAAL La Louvière's from 47, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Genk are 7th on 15 points from 11 games; RAAL La Louvière are 17th on 7 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Genk have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Union St. Gilloise.
- RAAL La Louvière have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to Cercle Brugge.
- Last 2 meetings: both drawn; the most recent, 22 March 2026, ended RAAL La Louvière 5–5 Genk.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Genk vs RAAL La Louvière
Has the model earned this number?
Genk at 57%: of 1,622 settled 50–65% forecasts, 58.4% came in (average 55.4%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Genk vs RAAL La Louvière
Genk
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-1away to Union St. Gilloise8 November 2026
- L0-1away to KV Mechelen31 October 2026
- W2-1Standard Liege25 October 2026
- W3-0Kortrijk10 October 2026
- L0-3away to Club Brugge KV20 September 2026
RAAL La Louvière
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-1Cercle Brugge7 November 2026
- L2-5away to Charleroi1 November 2026
- W3-0Zulte Waregem24 October 2026
- L1-4Club Brugge KV10 October 2026
- L0-2away to OH Leuven19 September 2026
What these results say
- Genk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- RAAL La Louvière failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- RAAL La Louvière conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Genk | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 15 | +3 | 15 |
| 17 | RAAL La Louvière | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Genk
Chance to finish in the top four · 7% today
RAAL La Louvière
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 51% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Genk vs RAAL La Louvière
- 22 March 2026RAAL La Louvière 5–5 GenkJupiler Pro League
- 26 October 2025Genk 1–1 RAAL La LouvièreJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Genk and RAAL La Louvière
Genk
GoalsAssists
- R. Durosinmi60
RAAL La Louvière
GoalsAssists
- M. Ubandoma60
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Genk the highest probability at 57%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Genk against 0.87 for RAAL La Louvière. Genk's attack/defence rating is 0.86/0.92 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.73/1.37 for RAAL La Louvière.
How the model reaches 57% for Genk to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Genk to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Genk's ratings add 7 points and RAAL La Louvière's ratings add 8 points, which lands on the published 57%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level42%−1
- Genk's ratings49%+7
- RAAL La Louvière's ratings57%+8
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Genk at home · RAAL La Louvière away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
GenkRAAL La Louvière
Genk are 7th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 4th and 14th so far); RAAL La Louvière are 17th after 11 (between 14th and 17th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Genk 11, RAAL La Louvière 11.
Genk score most often in the 31–45 minute window (5 goals); RAAL La Louvière have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Genk
- at St. Truiden29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
- vs OH Leuven11 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 48%
- at Charleroi19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 27%
- vs Lommel United27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 39%
- at Cercle Brugge17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
RAAL La Louvière
- at KVC Westerlo28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- vs Antwerp12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 36%
- at Lommel United19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs SK Beveren26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%
- at Union St. Gilloise16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 8%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.