Kortrijk
vs
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Kortrijk 0–2 Union St. Gilloise
The model makes it 10% Kortrijk, 21% draw, 69% Union St. Gilloise — fair odds of 10.00, 4.76 and 1.45.
Most likely scoreline: 0-2 (16%).
Expected goals: Kortrijk 0.52, Union St. Gilloise 2.14.
Both teams to score: 36%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 61% of the time, over 2,123 settled matches.
One-sided: Union St. Gilloise are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 11 November 2026. Kortrijk's rating is built from 11 Jupiler Pro League matches and Union St. Gilloise's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Kortrijk are bottom on 4 points from 11 games; Union St. Gilloise are top on 29 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Kortrijk are without a win in 4 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to Gent.
- Union St. Gilloise are unbeaten in their last 5 games (4 won), most recently a 1-0 win at home to Genk.
- Last 6 meetings: Union St. Gilloise 6 wins to 0, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 February 2025, ended Kortrijk 1–2 Union St. Gilloise.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise
Has the model earned this number?
Union St. Gilloise at 69%: of 501 settled 65–100% forecasts, 68.5% came in (average 72.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise
Kortrijk
Jupiler Pro League
- L0-1away to Gent8 November 2026
- L1-3KV Mechelen4 November 2026
- D1-1away to Standard Liege31 October 2026
- L0-3away to Genk10 October 2026
- W1-0SK Beveren20 September 2026
Union St. Gilloise
Jupiler Pro League
- W1-0Genk8 November 2026
- W2-1away to SK Beveren31 October 2026
- W5-2Cercle Brugge25 October 2026
- D1-1OH Leuven11 October 2026
- W2-0away to Antwerp20 September 2026
What these results say
- Kortrijk failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- Kortrijk conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Union St. Gilloise won 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Kortrijk | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 23 | -19 | 4 |
| 1 | Union St. Gilloise | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 7 | +23 | 29 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Kortrijk
Chance to finish in the bottom two · 93% today
Union St. Gilloise
Chance to finish top of the regular season · 40% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Kortrijk vs Union St. Gilloise
- 9 February 2025Kortrijk 1–2 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 29 September 2024Union St. Gilloise 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 18 February 2024Kortrijk 1–3 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 12 November 2023Union St. Gilloise 3–0 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
- 23 April 2023Kortrijk 2–4 Union St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League
- 13 August 2022Union St. Gilloise 2–1 KortrijkJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Kortrijk and Union St. Gilloise
Kortrijk
No player in Jupiler Pro League's leading scorers — 4 league goals as a side.
Union St. Gilloise
GoalsAssists
- R. Florucz50
- R. Mofokeng42
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Kortrijk a 0% chance of the title and Union St. Gilloise 40.4%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Kortrijk v Union St. Gilloise has moved
First published on 8 Nov at 9% / 20% / 71% (home / draw / away). After 1 update it reads 10% / 21% / 69%: the biggest move is Union St. Gilloise's chance of winning, down 2 points.
- Kortrijk win10%▲ +1
- Draw21%▲ +1
- Union St. Gilloise win69%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Union St. Gilloise the highest probability at 69%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 0.52 expected goals for Kortrijk against 2.14 for Union St. Gilloise. Kortrijk's attack/defence rating is 0.49/1.38 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.2/0.64 for Union St. Gilloise.
How the model reaches 69% for Union St. Gilloise to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Union St. Gilloise to win. Then home advantage takes away 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 1 point, Kortrijk's ratings add 19 points and Union St. Gilloise's ratings add 21 points, which lands on the published 69%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage30%−6
- Both sides at this match's level29%−1
- Kortrijk's ratings48%+19
- Union St. Gilloise's ratings69%+21
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Kortrijk at home · Union St. Gilloise away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
KortrijkUnion St. Gilloise
Kortrijk are 18th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 17th and 18th so far); Union St. Gilloise are 1st after 11 (between 1st and 5th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Kortrijk 11, Union St. Gilloise 11.
Union St. Gilloise score most often in the 76–90 minute window (9 goals); Kortrijk have let in 5 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Kortrijk
- at OH Leuven27 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Lommel United12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 18%
- at St. Truiden20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 12%
- vs Cercle Brugge26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 22%
- at KVC Westerlo16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 15%
Union St. Gilloise
- vs Lech Poznan26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 55%
- vs Gent29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 50%
- at Lyon10 Dec · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 41%
- at KV Mechelen13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 58%
- vs Club Brugge KV20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 41%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.