Regular Season - 12 · 22 November 2026, 18:15 UTC

Lommel United vs Standard Liege Jupiler Pro League prediction

Soevereinstadion, Lommel

Our model says: Lommel United 1–0 Standard Liege

The model makes it 47% Lommel United, 28% draw, 25% Standard Liege — fair odds of 2.13, 3.57 and 4.00.

Most likely scoreline: 1-0.

Expected goals: Lommel United 1.53, Standard Liege 0.95.

Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 45%, under 2.5: 55%.

Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.

Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.

Published 8 November 2026 · updated 12 November 2026

Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Lommel United's rating is built from 17 Jupiler Pro League matches and Standard Liege's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.

Key facts

Lommel United are 6th on 16 points from 11 games; Standard Liege are 8th on 15 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
Lommel United are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 2-2 draw away to Antwerp.
Standard Liege have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 3-0 win at home to SK Beveren.

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Live win probability

From kick-off

From kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.

Model insights: Lommel United vs Standard Liege

49%

Both teams to score

45%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

Under 2.5 goals

Most likely scorelines

Lommel United win Draw Standard Liege win

1–113%
1–012%
2–010%
2–19%
0–09%
0–17%
1–26%

Scores read Lommel United first; the other scorelines share the remaining 34%. How to read this.

Has the model earned this number?

Lommel United at 47%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.

Form going into Lommel United vs Standard Liege

Lommel United

Jupiler Pro League

D2-2away to Antwerp7 November 2026
W2-0Gent1 November 2026
D2-2away to OH Leuven24 October 2026
W3-1away to SK Beveren9 October 2026
D0-0KV Mechelen19 September 2026

Standard Liege

Jupiler Pro League

W3-0SK Beveren6 November 2026
D1-1Kortrijk31 October 2026
L1-2away to Genk25 October 2026
L0-1Charleroi11 October 2026
L1-2away to Gent18 September 2026

What these results say

Lommel United went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
Lommel United scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Standard Liege failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Standard Liege scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Standard Liege conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.

Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.

Jupiler Pro League table

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
6	Lommel United	11	4	4	3	15	13	+2	16
8	Standard Liege	11	4	3	4	18	16	+2	15

Where the two sides stand. Full table

What's at stake

Lommel United

Chance to finish in the top four · 15% today

Win 18%

Draw 12%

Defeat 9%

From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.

Head-to-head: Lommel United vs Standard Liege

26 September 2019Standard Liege 2–1 Lommel UnitedCup

Leading scorers: Lommel United and Standard Liege

Lommel United

GoalsAssists

Don-Angelo Christoffel Annum-Assamoah Konadu51

Standard Liege

GoalsAssists

D. Eckert Ayensa71

Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.

The rest of the season

Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Lommel United a 0.1% chance of the title and Standard Liege 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.

Statistical estimate, not betting advice This prediction is generated from a statistical model for entertainment and informational purposes only. It does not guarantee any outcome and should not be used as the basis for placing a bet.

Team comparison

Lommel United Standard Liege

0.93 Attack strength (vs league average) 0.81

0.91 Defence strength (vs league average, lower = stronger) 1

1.53 Model expected goals (this match) 0.95

Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.

Why the model favours this side

The model gives Lommel United the highest probability at 47%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.53 expected goals for Lommel United against 0.95 for Standard Liege. Lommel United's attack/defence rating is 0.93/0.91 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.81/1 for Standard Liege.

Lommel United carry a model rating of 6.86 against 6.75 for Standard Liege. A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.

How the model reaches 47% for Lommel United to win

Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Lommel United to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides takes away 2 points, Lommel United's ratings add 3 points and Standard Liege's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 47%.

Two average sides, neutral ground37%
Home advantage43%+6
Both sides at this match's level41%−2
Lommel United's ratings44%+3
Standard Liege's ratings47%+3

Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.

Goal trends

Lommel UnitedModelStandard Liege

Over 1.5 goals

60%

6 of 10 games

71%

model, this match

80%

8 of 10 games

Over 2.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

45%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Over 3.5 goals

50%

5 of 10 games

24%

model, this match

20%

2 of 10 games

Both teams score

30%

3 of 10 games

49%

model, this match

60%

6 of 10 games

Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.

Season stats

Lommel UnitedStandard Liege

11Matches11

4W 4D 3LRecord4W 3D 4L

15 1.4 per gameGoals scored18 1.6 per game

13 1.2 per gameGoals conceded16 1.5 per game

4 of 11Clean sheets3 of 11

4 of 11Failed to score1 of 11

1 of 2Penalties scored3 of 3

11 1.0 per gameYellow cards14 1.3 per game

0Red cards2

4-2-3-1 7×Usual shape4-3-3 7×

Lommel United at home · Standard Liege away

5Played5

2W 1D 2LRecord1W 1D 3L

6–2Goals for – against9–12

3 of 5Clean sheets0 of 5

League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.

Position by match

Lommel UnitedStandard Liege

Lommel United are 6th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 4th and 13th so far); Standard Liege are 8th after 11 (between 3rd and 11th). How to read this.

Goals scored and conceded, by minute

All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Lommel United 11, Standard Liege 11.

Lommel United scored 033424

Standard Liege conceded 114217

Standard Liege scored 3121101

Lommel United conceded 202152

Standard Liege score most often in the 61–75 minute window (10 goals); Lommel United have let in 5 there.

League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.

The next 5 matches, by difficulty

Lommel United

vs Zulte Waregem28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
at Kortrijk12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 55%
vs RAAL La Louvière19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 60%
at Genk27 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 31%
vs Anderlecht16 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 44%

Standard Liege

vs Club Brugge KV29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 21%
at Zulte Waregem12 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 35%
vs Anderlecht20 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 37%
vs Union St. Gilloise26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 22%
at St. Truiden17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 27%

Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.