Charleroi
vs
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League prediction
Our model says: Charleroi 2–1 St. Truiden
The model makes it 49% Charleroi, 25% draw, 26% St. Truiden — fair odds of 2.04, 4.00 and 3.85.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: Charleroi 1.95, St. Truiden 1.31.
Both teams to score: 63%. Over 2.5 goals: 63%, under 2.5: 37%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,920 settled matches.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 12 November 2026. Charleroi's rating is built from 51 Jupiler Pro League matches and St. Truiden's from 51, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 735 matches.
Key facts
- Charleroi are 4th on 27 points from 11 games; St. Truiden are 12th on 11 points from 11 games — Jupiler Pro League.
- Charleroi have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to KVC Westerlo.
- St. Truiden have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to Zulte Waregem.
- Last 6 meetings: Charleroi 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 31 January 2026, ended St. Truiden 0–2 Charleroi.
More Jupiler Pro League predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
Has the model earned this number?
Charleroi at 49%: of 2,925 settled 40–50% forecasts, 46.1% came in (average 43.9%). It can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Charleroi vs St. Truiden
Charleroi
Jupiler Pro League
- W5-1away to KVC Westerlo7 November 2026
- W5-2RAAL La Louvière1 November 2026
- L0-3away to Antwerp24 October 2026
- W1-0away to Standard Liege11 October 2026
- W3-2Cercle Brugge19 September 2026
St. Truiden
Jupiler Pro League
- W4-1Zulte Waregem8 November 2026
- L1-2OH Leuven1 November 2026
- L2-3away to Club Brugge KV25 October 2026
- L3-4away to KV Mechelen11 October 2026
- L0-2KVC Westerlo20 September 2026
What these results say
- Charleroi won 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Charleroi conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- St. Truiden scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first; context, not the model's input. How to read this.
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Charleroi | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 13 | +13 | 27 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 22 | 22 | 0 | 11 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
Charleroi
Chance to finish in the top four · 64% today
From our Jupiler Pro League season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. How to read this.
Head-to-head: Charleroi vs St. Truiden
- 31 January 2026St. Truiden 0–2 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 3 August 2025Charleroi 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 21 December 2024Charleroi 2–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
- 3 August 2024St. Truiden 1–4 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 23 December 2023St. Truiden 1–0 CharleroiJupiler Pro League
- 3 September 2023Charleroi 1–1 St. TruidenJupiler Pro League
Leading scorers: Charleroi and St. Truiden
Charleroi
GoalsAssists
- A. Scheidler62
- F. Situmona Mbemba53
St. Truiden
GoalsAssists
- S. Baždar50
- I. Sebaoui43
Top 3 by league goals this season; player availability is not in the model. How to read this.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Charleroi a 1.8% chance of the title and St. Truiden 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How the call on Charleroi v St. Truiden has moved
First published on 7 Nov at 46% / 26% / 28% (home / draw / away). After 2 updates it reads 49% / 25% / 26%: the biggest move is Charleroi's chance of winning, up 3 points.
- Charleroi win49%▲ +3
- Draw25%▼ −1
- St. Truiden win26%▼ −2
Each update is a full rebuild of both sides' ratings from the latest results, and now and then a change to the model itself. The thin mark is the first published figure.
Team comparison
Each side's share of the two-team total. How to read this.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Charleroi the highest probability at 49%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Charleroi against 1.31 for St. Truiden. Charleroi's attack/defence rating is 1.05/0.97 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.04/1.13 for St. Truiden.
How the model reaches 49% for Charleroi to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Charleroi to win. Then home advantage adds 6 points, the level of the two sides adds 1 point, Charleroi's ratings add 2 points and St. Truiden's ratings add 3 points, which lands on the published 49%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage43%+6
- Both sides at this match's level44%+1
- Charleroi's ratings46%+2
- St. Truiden's ratings49%+3
Each step adds one input to the step before. How to read this.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line; middle ring: the model's probability for this match. Not betting advice. How to read this.
Season stats
Charleroi at home · St. Truiden away
League matches only, Jupiler Pro League, this season; per game, from API-Football. How to read this.
Position by match
CharleroiSt. Truiden
Charleroi are 4th after 11 Jupiler Pro League matches (between 1st and 4th so far); St. Truiden are 12th after 11 (between 5th and 15th). How to read this.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Jupiler Pro League matches this season: Charleroi 11, St. Truiden 11.
St. Truiden score most often in the 61–75 minute window (6 goals); Charleroi have let in 3 there.
League goals by 15-minute window, from API-Football. Context, not a prediction. How to read this.
The next 5 matches, by difficulty
Charleroi
- vs SK Beveren28 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 65%
- at Anderlecht13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 33%
- vs Genk19 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 46%
- at Club Brugge KV26 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 17%
- vs Gent17 Jan · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 37%
St. Truiden
- at HNK Hajduk Split26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 33%
- vs Genk29 Nov · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 42%
- vs Ajax10 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 35%
- at Gent13 Dec · Jupiler Pro Leaguewin 23%
- at FC Lugano17 Dec · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 29%
Each side's next matches after this one, coloured by the opponent's strength. How to read this.