NK Varazdin
vs
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Varazdin 0–1 Dinamo Zagreb
The model makes it 29% NK Varazdin, 28% draw, 43% Dinamo Zagreb — fair odds of 3.45, 3.57 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 1.13, Dinamo Zagreb 1.48.
Both teams to score: 53%. Over 2.5 goals: 48%, under 2.5: 52%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Dinamo Zagreb: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. NK Varazdin's rating is built from 46 Croatian HNL matches and Dinamo Zagreb's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 409 matches.
Key facts
- NK Varazdin are 3rd on 18 points from 10 games; Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd on 19 points from 9 games — HNL.
- NK Varazdin have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat away to HNK Hajduk Split.
- Dinamo Zagreb have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 5-1 win away to NK Slaven Belupo.
- Last 6 meetings: Dinamo Zagreb 5 wins to 0, 1 draw; the most recent, 22 August 2026, ended Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK Varazdin.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Dinamo Zagreb at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
NK Varazdin
HNL
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split18 October 2026
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
Dinamo Zagreb
HNL
- W5-1away to NK Slaven Belupo18 October 2026
- L1-2away to HNK Hajduk Split10 October 2026
- W3-2NK Lokomotiva Zagreb20 September 2026
- L2-4away to NK Osijek12 September 2026
- W1-0HNK Gorica5 September 2026
What these results say
- NK Varazdin failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Varazdin had two goals or fewer.
- Dinamo Zagreb scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- Dinamo Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Dinamo Zagreb had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | NK Varazdin | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 18 |
| 2 | Dinamo Zagreb | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 12 | +11 | 19 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs Dinamo Zagreb
- 22 August 2026Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 26 April 2026Dinamo Zagreb 2–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 22 February 2026NK Varazdin 0–4 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 22 November 2025Dinamo Zagreb 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 30 August 2025NK Varazdin 2–2 Dinamo ZagrebHNL
- 25 May 2025Dinamo Zagreb 1–0 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and Dinamo Zagreb
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
Dinamo Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Beljo124
- N. Galešić30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.53 against 6.81 for Dinamo Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.13 goals for NK Varazdin and 1.48 for Dinamo Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.59 in attack and 1.15 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Dinamo Zagreb rate 1.10 and 1.22.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Varazdin a 2.7% chance of the title and Dinamo Zagreb 70.2%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Dinamo Zagreb the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.13 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 1.48 for Dinamo Zagreb. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.15 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 1.1/1.22 for Dinamo Zagreb.
How the model reaches 43% for Dinamo Zagreb to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Dinamo Zagreb to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, NK Varazdin's ratings add 15 points and Dinamo Zagreb's ratings take away 1 point, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- NK Varazdin's ratings44%+15
- Dinamo Zagreb's ratings43%−1
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Varazdin at home · Dinamo Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NK VarazdinDinamo Zagreb
NK Varazdin are 3rd after 10 HNL matches (between 1st and 4th so far); Dinamo Zagreb are 2nd after 9 (between 1st and 3rd). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Varazdin 10, Dinamo Zagreb 9.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); Dinamo Zagreb have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NK Varazdin
- at Rudes21 Nov · HNLwin 46%
- at Istra 196128 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- vs HNK Gorica5 Dec · HNLwin 51%
Dinamo Zagreb
- vs Istra 196121 Nov · HNLwin 71%
- vs Bayer Leverkusen26 Nov · UEFA Europa Leaguewin 28%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.