NK Varazdin
vs
NK Slaven Belupo
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Varazdin 1–0 NK Slaven Belupo
The model makes it 55% NK Varazdin, 26% draw, 19% NK Slaven Belupo — fair odds of 1.82, 3.85 and 5.26. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0 (13%).
Expected goals: NK Varazdin 1.73, NK Slaven Belupo 0.80.
Both teams to score: 46%. Over 2.5 goals: 47%, under 2.5: 53%.
Model confidence: High.
Edge to NK Varazdin: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- NK Varazdin are 2nd on 18 points from 9 games; NK Slaven Belupo are 7th on 10 points from 9 games — HNL.
- NK Varazdin are unbeaten in their last 5 games (2 won), most recently a 1-0 win away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- NK Slaven Belupo have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 4-1 win at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Varazdin 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 9 August 2026, ended NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK Varazdin.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Varazdin at 55% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 872 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 55.5% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo
NK Varazdin
- W1-0away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb11 October 2026
- D0-0NK Osijek19 September 2026
- D2-2away to HNK Gorica14 September 2026
- D0-0Istra 19614 September 2026
- W2-0Rudes29 August 2026
NK Slaven Belupo
- W4-1HNK Rijeka11 October 2026
- D2-2away to Rudes18 September 2026
- L0-1away to HNK Hajduk Split13 September 2026
- W2-1NK Lokomotiva Zagreb6 September 2026
- L0-3away to NK Osijek30 August 2026
What these results say
- NK Varazdin went unbeaten through these 5 matches.
- NK Varazdin kept a clean sheet in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Varazdin had two goals or fewer.
- NK Slaven Belupo conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for NK Slaven Belupo had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 14 | 7 | +7 | 18 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 10 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
NK Varazdin
Chance to finish in the top four · 77% today
NK Slaven Belupo
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 47% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: NK Varazdin vs NK Slaven Belupo
- 9 August 2026NK Slaven Belupo 1–4 NK VarazdinHNL
- 12 April 2026NK Varazdin 2–1 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 31 January 2026NK Slaven Belupo 0–2 NK VarazdinHNL
- 25 October 2025NK Varazdin 1–3 NK Slaven BelupoHNL
- 10 August 2025NK Slaven Belupo 3–1 NK VarazdinHNL
- 22 April 2025NK Slaven Belupo 0–1 NK VarazdinHNL
Leading scorers: NK Varazdin and NK Slaven Belupo
NK Varazdin
GoalsAssists
- L. Mamić40
- I. Canjuga32
NK Slaven Belupo
GoalsAssists
- I. Nestorovski70
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Varazdin carry a model rating of 6.54 against 6.29 for NK Slaven Belupo. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.73 goals for NK Varazdin and 0.80 for NK Slaven Belupo. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Varazdin rate 0.61 in attack and 1.17 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Slaven Belupo rate 0.59 and 1.81.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Varazdin a 6.3% chance of the title and NK Slaven Belupo 0%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Varazdin the highest probability at 55%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.73 expected goals for NK Varazdin against 0.80 for NK Slaven Belupo. NK Varazdin's attack/defence rating is 0.61/1.17 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.59/1.81 for NK Slaven Belupo.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Varazdin at home · NK Slaven Belupo away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NK VarazdinNK Slaven Belupo
NK Varazdin are 2nd after 9 HNL matches (between 1st and 4th so far); NK Slaven Belupo are 7th after 9 (between 7th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Varazdin 9, NK Slaven Belupo 9.
NK Varazdin score most often in the 16–30 minute window (4 goals); NK Slaven Belupo have let in 4 there.
NK Slaven Belupo score most often in the 61–75 minute window (4 goals); NK Varazdin have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
NK Varazdin
- at HNK Rijeka31 Oct · HNLwin 29%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb7 Nov · HNLwin 31%
- at Rudes21 Nov · HNLwin 46%
- at Istra 196128 Nov · HNLwin 34%
NK Slaven Belupo
- vs Istra 196131 Oct · HNLwin 39%
- at HNK Gorica7 Nov · HNLwin 30%
- vs NK Osijek21 Nov · HNLwin 40%
- at NK Lokomotiva Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 27%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.