ADT
vs
Sporting Cristal
Primera División prediction
Our model says: ADT 1–2 Sporting Cristal
The model makes it 27% ADT, 27% draw, 46% Sporting Cristal — fair odds of 3.70, 3.70 and 2.17. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-2.
Expected goals: ADT 1.16, Sporting Cristal 1.67.
Both teams to score: 56%. Over 2.5 goals: 54%, under 2.5: 46%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 46% of the time, over 2,126 settled matches.
One-sided: Sporting Cristal are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. ADT's rating is built from 65 Primera División (Peru) matches and Sporting Cristal's from 69, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most.
Key facts
- ADT are 17th on 26 points from 29 games; Sporting Cristal are 8th on 44 points from 29 games — Primera División, Primera Division: Tabla Anual.
- ADT are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw away to Atletico Grau.
- Sporting Cristal are unbeaten in their last 5 games (5 won), most recently a 4-2 win at home to Comerciantes Unidos.
- Last 6 meetings: Sporting Cristal 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 1 October 2026, ended Sporting Cristal 5–0 ADT.
More Primera División (Peru) predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: ADT vs Sporting Cristal
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Sporting Cristal at 46% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into ADT vs Sporting Cristal
ADT
Primera División
- D1-1away to Atletico Grau23 October 2026
- L1-2away to Club Deportivo Los Chankas16 October 2026
- D0-0FC Cajamarca10 October 2026
- W2-1Cienciano23 September 2026
- L0-2away to Alianza Lima19 September 2026
Sporting Cristal
Primera División
- W4-2Comerciantes Unidos18 October 2026
- W1-0away to UTC Cajamarca11 October 2026
- W3-1Atletico Grau19 September 2026
- W2-1away to UCV Moquegua13 September 2026
- W5-0Club Deportivo Los Chankas6 September 2026
What these results say
- ADT failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- ADT conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal won every one of these 5 matches.
- Sporting Cristal scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for Sporting Cristal had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Primera División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 | ADT | 29 | 6 | 8 | 15 | 30 | 44 | -14 | 26 |
| 8 | Sporting Cristal | 29 | 13 | 5 | 11 | 53 | 42 | +11 | 44 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: ADT vs Sporting Cristal
- 1 October 2026Sporting Cristal 5–0 ADTCopa De La Liga
- 27 September 2026ADT 0–1 Sporting CristalCopa De La Liga
- 24 May 2026Sporting Cristal 2–1 ADTPrimera División
- 4 October 2025ADT 3–2 Sporting CristalPrimera División
- 17 May 2025Sporting Cristal 2–1 ADTPrimera División
- 12 July 2024ADT 3–1 Sporting CristalPrimera División
Leading scorers: ADT and Sporting Cristal
ADT
No player in Primera División's leading scorers — 30 league goals as a side.
Sporting Cristal
GoalsAssists
- H. Barcos113
- L. Iberico90
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
ADT carry a model rating of 6.17 against 6.5 for Sporting Cristal. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.16 goals for ADT and 1.67 for Sporting Cristal. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
ADT rate 0.45 in attack and 1.78 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Sporting Cristal rate 0.78 and 1.58.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,204 correct results out of 4,575 settled predictions (48%), with 454 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Sporting Cristal the highest probability at 46%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.16 expected goals for ADT against 1.67 for Sporting Cristal. ADT's attack/defence rating is 0.45/1.78 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.58 for Sporting Cristal.
How the model reaches 46% for Sporting Cristal to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Sporting Cristal to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, ADT's ratings add 35 points and Sporting Cristal's ratings take away 18 points, which lands on the published 46%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- ADT's ratings64%+35
- Sporting Cristal's ratings46%−18
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
ADT at home · Sporting Cristal away
League matches only, Primera División, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Primera División matches this season: ADT 30, Sporting Cristal 29.
ADT score most often in the 61–75 minute window (8 goals); Sporting Cristal have let in 7 there.
Sporting Cristal score most often in the 76–90 minute window (11 goals); ADT have let in 9 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
Next match, by difficulty
ADT
- at Cusco14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 18%
Sporting Cristal
- vs Cienciano14 Nov · Primera Divisiónwin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.