NK Osijek
vs
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Osijek 0–1 HNK Hajduk Split
The model makes it 28% NK Osijek, 29% draw, 43% HNK Hajduk Split — fair odds of 3.57, 3.45 and 2.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: NK Osijek 1.02, HNK Hajduk Split 1.42.
Both teams to score: 49%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
One-sided: HNK Hajduk Split are clearly the stronger team on the model's ratings. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 68%, 20% were drawn and the underdog won 12%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. NK Osijek's rating is built from 46 Croatian HNL matches and HNK Hajduk Split's from 46, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 409 matches.
Key facts
- NK Osijek are 4th on 17 points from 10 games; HNK Hajduk Split are top on 22 points from 10 games — HNL.
- NK Osijek are without a win in 3 games, most recently a 1-1 draw at home to HNK Gorica.
- HNK Hajduk Split have won 4 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-0 win at home to NK Varazdin.
- Last 6 meetings: HNK Hajduk Split 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK Osijek.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Hajduk Split at 43% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek
HNL
- D1-1HNK Gorica17 October 2026
- L1-3Istra 196110 October 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin19 September 2026
- W4-2Dinamo Zagreb12 September 2026
- L1-4away to HNK Rijeka5 September 2026
HNK Hajduk Split
HNL
- W1-0NK Varazdin18 October 2026
- W2-1Dinamo Zagreb10 October 2026
- L0-3away to HNK Rijeka20 September 2026
- W1-0NK Slaven Belupo13 September 2026
- W4-0away to Rudes6 September 2026
What these results say
- NK Osijek failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Osijek conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split won 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Hajduk Split scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | NK Osijek | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19 | 15 | +4 | 17 |
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 9 | +10 | 22 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Osijek vs HNK Hajduk Split
- 23 August 2026HNK Hajduk Split 4–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 21 April 2026HNK Hajduk Split 0–1 NK OsijekHNL
- 15 February 2026NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 8 November 2025HNK Hajduk Split 2–0 NK OsijekHNL
- 24 August 2025NK Osijek 0–2 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
- 27 April 2025NK Osijek 2–0 HNK Hajduk SplitHNL
Leading scorers: NK Osijek and HNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek
GoalsAssists
- A. León61
- N. Omerović50
HNK Hajduk Split
GoalsAssists
- M. Šego41
- M. Livaja30
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
NK Osijek carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.66 for HNK Hajduk Split. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.02 goals for NK Osijek and 1.42 for HNK Hajduk Split. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Osijek rate 0.57 in attack and 1.56 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Hajduk Split rate 0.78 and 1.14.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives NK Osijek a 0.2% chance of the title and HNK Hajduk Split 25%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Hajduk Split the highest probability at 43%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.02 expected goals for NK Osijek against 1.42 for HNK Hajduk Split. NK Osijek's attack/defence rating is 0.57/1.56 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.78/1.14 for HNK Hajduk Split.
How the model reaches 43% for HNK Hajduk Split to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for HNK Hajduk Split to win. Then home advantage takes away 7 points, NK Osijek's ratings add 25 points and HNK Hajduk Split's ratings take away 11 points, which lands on the published 43%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage29%−7
- NK Osijek's ratings54%+25
- HNK Hajduk Split's ratings43%−11
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Osijek at home · HNK Hajduk Split away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NK OsijekHNK Hajduk Split
NK Osijek are 4th after 10 HNL matches (between 1st and 3rd so far); HNK Hajduk Split are 1st after 10 (between 1st and 8th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Osijek 10, HNK Hajduk Split 10.
NK Osijek score most often in the 0–15 minute window (7 goals); HNK Hajduk Split have let in 0 there.
HNK Hajduk Split score most often in the 76–90 minute window (6 goals); NK Osijek have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NK Osijek
- at NK Slaven Belupo21 Nov · HNLwin 33%
- vs HNK Rijeka28 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- at Dinamo Zagreb5 Dec · HNLwin 11%
HNK Hajduk Split
- vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb21 Nov · HNLwin 59%
- vs St. Truiden26 Nov · UEFA Europa Conference Leaguewin 39%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.