NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
vs
Rudes
HNL prediction
Our model says: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2–1 Rudes
The model makes it 54% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, 24% draw, 22% Rudes — fair odds of 1.85, 4.17 and 4.55. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 2-1.
Expected goals: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 2.03, Rudes 1.09.
Both teams to score: 58%. Over 2.5 goals: 60%, under 2.5: 40%.
Model confidence: High — calls at this level have come off 59% of the time, over 1,486 settled matches.
Edge to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's rating is built from 46 Croatian HNL matches and Rudes's from 10, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 409 matches.
Key facts
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 7th on 10 points from 10 games; Rudes are 9th on 7 points from 10 games — HNL.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-0 win at home to Istra 1961.
- Rudes have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to HNK Rijeka.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3 wins to 1, 2 draws; the most recent, 21 August 2026, ended Rudes 4–1 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes
Has the model earned this number?
It puts NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at 54% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 1,113 forecasts have landed in the 50–65% band; those outcomes actually happened 56.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 55.5%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL
- W2-0Istra 196117 October 2026
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
Rudes
HNL
- L1-2HNK Rijeka16 October 2026
- W2-1away to HNK Gorica9 October 2026
- D2-2NK Slaven Belupo18 September 2026
- L2-3away to Istra 196113 September 2026
- L0-4HNK Hajduk Split6 September 2026
What these results say
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Rudes conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
- Every one of these 5 matches for Rudes had three goals or more.
- Rudes failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Rudes | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 13 | 27 | -14 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb vs Rudes
- 21 August 2026Rudes 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 18 May 2024Rudes 3–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 9 March 2024NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 RudesHNL
- 3 December 2023Rudes 0–0 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 15 September 2023NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–0 RudesHNL
- 20 April 2019Rudes 1–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and Rudes
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Rudes
GoalsAssists
- N. Skoko30
- L. Ilečić22
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb carry a model rating of 6.34 against 6.19 for Rudes. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 2.03 goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb and 1.09 for Rudes. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.55 in attack and 1.53 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Rudes rate 0.61 and 2.35.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives NK Lokomotiva Zagreb the highest probability at 54%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 2.03 expected goals for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb against 1.09 for Rudes. NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's attack/defence rating is 0.55/1.53 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.61/2.35 for Rudes.
How the model reaches 54% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings take away 24 points and Rudes's ratings add 34 points, which lands on the published 54%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb's ratings20%−24
- Rudes's ratings54%+34
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb at home · Rudes away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
NK Lokomotiva ZagrebRudes
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 7th after 10 HNL matches (between 2nd and 7th so far); Rudes are 9th after 10 (between 8th and 10th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 10, Rudes 10.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); Rudes have let in 5 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- at HNK Hajduk Split21 Nov · HNLwin 16%
- vs NK Slaven Belupo28 Nov · HNLwin 48%
- at HNK Rijeka5 Dec · HNLwin 22%
Rudes
- vs NK Varazdin21 Nov · HNLwin 27%
- at HNK Hajduk Split28 Nov · HNLwin 10%
- vs Istra 19615 Dec · HNLwin 35%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.