Odense
vs
Viborg
Superliga prediction
Our model says: Odense 0–1 Viborg
The model makes it 30% Odense, 28% draw, 42% Viborg — fair odds of 3.33, 3.57 and 2.38. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 0-1.
Expected goals: Odense 1.17, Viborg 1.50.
Both teams to score: 54%. Over 2.5 goals: 50%, under 2.5: 50%.
Model confidence: Medium — calls at this level have come off 45% of the time, over 2,115 settled matches.
Edge to Viborg: the better side on the model's ratings, but not by much. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 54%, 26% were drawn and the underdog won 21%.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Odense's rating is built from 43 Danish Superliga matches and Viborg's from 43, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 453 matches.
Key facts
- Odense are 7th on 13 points from 11 games; Viborg are 3rd on 20 points from 11 games — Superliga.
- Odense are unbeaten in 4 games, most recently a 2-1 win at home to Brondby.
- Viborg have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to FC Midtjylland.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 3 wins each, 0 draws; the most recent, 24 July 2026, ended Viborg 1–0 Odense.
More Danish Superliga predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Odense vs Viborg
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Viborg at 42% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 2,103 forecasts have landed in the 40–50% band; those outcomes actually happened 45.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 43.9%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Odense vs Viborg
Odense
Superliga
- W2-1Brondby18 October 2026
- D0-0away to FC Nordsjaelland9 October 2026
- D1-1FC Midtjylland19 September 2026
- W2-1away to Randers FC13 September 2026
- L0-5FC Copenhagen6 September 2026
Viborg
Superliga
- L1-2FC Midtjylland19 October 2026
- W2-0away to Randers FC11 October 2026
- W4-1FC Nordsjaelland20 September 2026
- D1-1away to Silkeborg13 September 2026
- L0-2Lyngby4 September 2026
What these results say
- Odense conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg scored in 4 of these 5 matches.
- Viborg conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
Superliga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Odense | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 13 |
| 3 | Viborg | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 20 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Odense vs Viborg
- 24 July 2026Viborg 1–0 OdenseSuperliga
- 19 October 2025Viborg 1–2 OdenseSuperliga
- 27 July 2025Odense 3–1 ViborgSuperliga
- 25 May 2024Viborg 2–1 OdenseSuperliga
- 12 April 2024Odense 1–3 ViborgSuperliga
- 16 February 2024Viborg 1–2 OdenseSuperliga
Leading scorers: Odense and Viborg
Odense
No player in Superliga's leading scorers — 10 league goals as a side.
Viborg
GoalsAssists
- Dorian Hanza51
- C. Nouck33
- M. Søndergaard32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Odense carry a model rating of 6.48 against 6.67 for Viborg. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.17 goals for Odense and 1.50 for Viborg. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Odense rate 0.60 in attack and 1.29 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; Viborg rate 0.77 and 1.12.
The rest of the season
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Odense a 0% chance of the title and Viborg 2.5%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Viborg the highest probability at 42%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.17 expected goals for Odense against 1.50 for Viborg. Odense's attack/defence rating is 0.6/1.29 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.77/1.12 for Viborg.
How the model reaches 42% for Viborg to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 37% for Viborg to win. Then home advantage takes away 4 points, Odense's ratings add 21 points and Viborg's ratings take away 12 points, which lands on the published 42%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground37%
- Home advantage33%−4
- Odense's ratings54%+21
- Viborg's ratings42%−12
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Odense at home · Viborg away
League matches only, Superliga, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
OdenseViborg
Odense are 7th after 11 Superliga matches (between 5th and 12th so far); Viborg are 3rd after 11 (between 1st and 5th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All Superliga matches this season: Odense 11, Viborg 11.
Viborg score most often in the 46–60 minute window (5 goals); Odense have let in 4 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Odense
- at Sonderjyske22 Nov · Superligawin 33%
- vs FC Nordsjaelland30 Nov · Superligawin 29%
- at Brondby6 Dec · Superligawin 26%
Viborg
- vs Randers FC22 Nov · Superligawin 55%
- at Lyngby29 Nov · Superligawin 49%
- vs Sonderjyske7 Dec · Superligawin 53%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.