Istra 1961
vs
HNK Rijeka
HNL prediction
Our model says: Istra 1961 1–0 HNK Rijeka
The model makes it 35% Istra 1961, 30% draw, 35% HNK Rijeka — fair odds of 2.86, 3.33 and 2.86. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: Istra 1961 1.22, HNK Rijeka 1.21.
Both teams to score: 50%. Over 2.5 goals: 44%, under 2.5: 56%.
Model confidence: Low — calls at this level have come off 38% of the time, over 957 settled matches.
A tight game: Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka are within 3 points of each other, so the draw is a real outcome here.
Published
Source: Fulltime Stats' own Dixon-Coles model, as of 24 October 2026. Istra 1961's rating is built from 46 Croatian HNL matches and HNK Rijeka's from 45, over this season and last, recent ones weighted most. Goal level and home advantage are this competition's own, measured over 409 matches.
Key facts
- Istra 1961 are 6th on 12 points from 10 games; HNK Rijeka are 5th on 17 points from 9 games — HNL.
- Istra 1961 have won 2 of their last 5 games, most recently a 0-2 defeat away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
- HNK Rijeka have won 3 of their last 5 games, most recently a 2-1 win away to Rudes.
- Last 6 meetings: level at 2 wins each, 2 draws; the most recent, 23 August 2026, ended HNK Rijeka 3–2 Istra 1961.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
Has the model earned this number?
It puts Istra 1961 at 35% here. Across 4,534 settled matches (as of 24 October 2026), 3,490 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.6% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.7%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally. The full record.
Form going into Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
HNL
- L0-2away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb17 October 2026
- W3-1away to NK Osijek10 October 2026
- L0-1HNK Gorica19 September 2026
- W3-2Rudes13 September 2026
- D0-0away to NK Varazdin4 September 2026
HNK Rijeka
HNL
- W2-1away to Rudes16 October 2026
- L1-4away to NK Slaven Belupo11 October 2026
- W3-0HNK Hajduk Split20 September 2026
- D1-1away to NK Lokomotiva Zagreb12 September 2026
- W4-1NK Osijek5 September 2026
What these results say
- Istra 1961 conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka scored in every one of these 5 matches.
- HNK Rijeka conceded in 4 of these 5 matches.
- 4 of these 5 matches for HNK Rijeka had three goals or more.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 17 | 16 | +1 | 12 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 12 | +4 | 17 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
Head-to-head: Istra 1961 vs HNK Rijeka
- 23 August 2026HNK Rijeka 3–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 17 May 2026Istra 1961 0–0 HNK RijekaHNL
- 15 March 2026HNK Rijeka 0–2 Istra 1961HNL
- 20 January 2026Istra 1961 1–2 HNK RijekaHNL
- 27 September 2025HNK Rijeka 0–0 Istra 1961HNL
- 19 April 2025Istra 1961 2–0 HNK RijekaHNL
Leading scorers: Istra 1961 and HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961
GoalsAssists
- E. Frederiksen73
- H. Jaganjac41
- D. Ahmeti34
HNK Rijeka
GoalsAssists
- D. Adu-Adjei43
- T. Fruk34
- Tiago Dantas32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
The two sides
Istra 1961 carry a model rating of 6.35 against 6.5 for HNK Rijeka. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
What the model expects
Under the hood the model expects 1.22 goals for Istra 1961 and 1.21 for HNK Rijeka. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
Istra 1961 rate 0.59 in attack and 1.59 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; HNK Rijeka rate 0.65 and 1.32.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour HNK Rijeka, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
Across the rest of the season our simulation gives Istra 1961 a 0.1% chance of the title and HNK Rijeka 1.7%, from 10,000 simulated seasons.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 2,192 correct results out of 4,558 settled predictions (48%), with 452 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
Once the match starts, the win probabilities at the top update live from the score, the clock and any sendings-off.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives Istra 1961 the highest probability at 35%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Istra 1961 against 1.21 for HNK Rijeka. Istra 1961's attack/defence rating is 0.59/1.59 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.65/1.32 for HNK Rijeka.
How the model reaches 35% for Istra 1961 to win
Start from two average sides on neutral ground: 36% for Istra 1961 to win. Then home advantage adds 8 points, Istra 1961's ratings take away 24 points and HNK Rijeka's ratings add 15 points, which lands on the published 35%.
- Two average sides, neutral ground36%
- Home advantage44%+8
- Istra 1961's ratings20%−24
- HNK Rijeka's ratings35%+15
Each step adds one input to the step before. In another order the steps would differ in size; the end point would not.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
Istra 1961 at home · HNK Rijeka away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
Istra 1961HNK Rijeka
Istra 1961 are 6th after 10 HNL matches (between 5th and 9th so far); HNK Rijeka are 5th after 9 (between 3rd and 6th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: Istra 1961 10, HNK Rijeka 9.
Istra 1961 score most often in the 16–30 minute window (5 goals); HNK Rijeka have let in 2 there.
HNK Rijeka score most often in the 31–45 minute window (6 goals); Istra 1961 have let in 2 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 3 matches, by difficulty
Istra 1961
- at Dinamo Zagreb21 Nov · HNLwin 11%
- vs NK Varazdin28 Nov · HNLwin 34%
- at Rudes5 Dec · HNLwin 39%
HNK Rijeka
- vs HNK Gorica21 Nov · HNLwin 52%
- at NK Osijek28 Nov · HNLwin 35%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb3 Dec · HNLwin 29%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.