HNK Gorica
vs
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNL prediction
Our model says: HNK Gorica 1–0 NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
The model makes it 38% HNK Gorica, 32% draw, 30% NK Lokomotiva Zagreb — fair odds of 2.63, 3.13 and 3.33. Fair odds are simply 100 ÷ the probability; they are the model's own number, not a bookmaker's price.
Most likely scoreline: 1-0.
Expected goals: HNK Gorica 1.10, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 0.91.
Both teams to score: 41%. Over 2.5 goals: 33%, under 2.5: 67%.
Model confidence: Low.
Evenly matched: once home advantage is counted, neither side has a clear edge. In past matches rated this way the favourite won 41%, 28% were drawn and the underdog won 31%.
Published · updated
Key facts
- HNK Gorica are bottom on 5 points from 9 games; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 8th on 7 points from 9 games — HNL.
- HNK Gorica have won 1 of their last 5 games, most recently a 1-2 defeat at home to Rudes.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have not won in their last 5 games, most recently a 0-1 defeat at home to NK Varazdin.
- Last 6 meetings: NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 4 wins to 2, 0 draws; the most recent, 8 August 2026, ended NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 HNK Gorica.
More Croatian HNL predictions
Live win probability
From kick-offFrom kick-off, the split above updates here every few seconds as the model re-reads the score, the clock and any red cards.
Model insights: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Has the model earned this number?
It puts HNK Gorica at 38% here. Across 3,660 settled matches (as of 14 October 2026), 2,861 forecasts have landed in the 30–40% band; those outcomes actually happened 33.3% of the time, against an average forecast of 33.6%. In this range the two line up, so the figure above can be read literally.
Every settled prediction on this site is scored against an uninformed baseline, band by band, and published whether or not it flatters the model — see the full record.
Form going into HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica
- L1-2Rudes9 October 2026
- W1-0away to Istra 196119 September 2026
- D2-2NK Varazdin14 September 2026
- L0-1away to Dinamo Zagreb5 September 2026
- D0-0HNK Rijeka31 August 2026
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- L0-1NK Varazdin11 October 2026
- L2-3away to Dinamo Zagreb20 September 2026
- D1-1HNK Rijeka12 September 2026
- L1-2away to NK Slaven Belupo6 September 2026
- L0-2away to HNK Hajduk Split31 August 2026
What these results say
- HNK Gorica failed to win 4 of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb did not win any of these 5 matches.
- NK Lokomotiva Zagreb conceded in every one of these 5 matches.
Up to 5 matches before kick-off, most recent first. The model rates each side on its goals over this season and last, adjusted for the opposition, rather than on these results alone, so read them as context — how the ratings are built.
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 5 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 |
Where the two sides stand. Full table
What's at stake
HNK Gorica
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 77% today
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
Chance to finish in the bottom three · 55% today
From our HNL season simulation: the rest of the season played out 10,000 times by the same model as the prediction above. Each figure is that side's chance once this match ends in a win, a draw or a defeat for it, with every other match still left to the model. Positions in the table, not competition rules: what a place is worth differs from league to league.
Head-to-head: HNK Gorica vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- 8 August 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–1 HNK GoricaHNL
- 17 April 2026HNK Gorica 0–2 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 6 February 2026NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 3–0 HNK GoricaHNL
- 3 November 2025HNK Gorica 4–1 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
- 16 August 2025NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 1–3 HNK GoricaHNL
- 24 May 2025HNK Gorica 0–3 NK Lokomotiva ZagrebHNL
Leading scorers: HNK Gorica and NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica
GoalsAssists
- B. Bogojević40
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
GoalsAssists
- D. Vuković32
Top 3 by league goals this season. Player availability is not part of the model — injuries and suspensions are a planned improvement.
Two sides the ratings cannot separate
HNK Gorica carry a model rating of 6.28 against 6.31 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. The scale is anchored so that an average side in one of Europe's big five leagues sits at 6.85, and it is adjusted for the strength of each team's league, so the two numbers are comparable even across borders.
A gap that small is inside the noise of the rating itself — treat the two as level.
The model expects a tight, low-scoring game
Under the hood the model expects 1.10 goals for HNK Gorica and 0.91 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. Those two numbers, not the scoreline, are what the model actually estimates; everything else is derived from them.
HNK Gorica rate 0.44 in attack and 1.45 in defence, where 1 is league average and a lower defensive number is better; NK Lokomotiva Zagreb rate 0.54 and 1.59.
Where the model differs from the table
The table and the model disagree here: the standings favour NK Lokomotiva Zagreb, while our numbers lean the other way. The model weights recent expected goals rather than results already banked, so it moves before the table does.
How this was produced
Publicly tracked record so far: 1,774 correct results out of 3,712 settled predictions (48%), with 376 exact scorelines (10%). That log is updated automatically after every match and is never edited.
Full method: how the model works.
From the first whistle this page keeps going: the win probabilities at the top are recalculated as the match plays out, reading the score, the clock and any sendings-off. The same model, asked how many goals are left rather than how many there will be.
Team comparison
Bars show each side's share of the two-team total, based on the model's attack/defence ratings and expected goals for this fixture.
Why the model favours this side
The model gives HNK Gorica the highest probability at 38%, based on each side's rolling attack and defence ratings estimated from recent match data. The model projects 1.10 expected goals for HNK Gorica against 0.91 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb. HNK Gorica's attack/defence rating is 0.44/1.45 versus the league average (1.00 = average), compared with 0.54/1.59 for NK Lokomotiva Zagreb.
Goal trends
Over 1.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals
Both teams score
Outer rings: how often each side's most recent league matches before kick-off (up to 10 games; the count is under each ring) went over the line. Middle ring: the model's own probability for this match, from the same expected goals as the prediction above. Past matches are context; the middle ring is the estimate. Not betting advice.
Season stats
HNK Gorica at home · NK Lokomotiva Zagreb away
League matches only, HNL, this season. Rates are per game, since the two sides have not always played the same number; the tinted figure is the better one, where better is not a matter of taste. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match.
Position by match
HNK GoricaNK Lokomotiva Zagreb
HNK Gorica are 10th after 9 HNL matches (between 8th and 10th so far); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb are 7th after 9 (between 2nd and 7th). Rebuilt from the season's results after each side's matches (x-axis: that side's match number); ties split on goal difference, then goals scored.
Goals scored and conceded, by minute
All HNL matches this season: HNK Gorica 9, NK Lokomotiva Zagreb 9.
HNK Gorica score most often in the 76–90 minute window (4 goals); NK Lokomotiva Zagreb have let in 1 there.
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb score most often in the 76–90 minute window (3 goals); HNK Gorica have let in 3 there.
Each cell counts the league goals that went in during that 15-minute window. Each side's goals sit above the goals its opponent has let in over the same minutes; the darker the cell, the more goals in that window. Stoppage time counts in the last window of its half. Source: API-Football season statistics, refreshed after each league match; own goals are not always counted on the same side as in the table, so a row can be a goal off it. Context, not a prediction.
The next 4 matches, by difficulty
HNK Gorica
- at HNK Hajduk Split31 Oct · HNLwin 14%
- vs NK Slaven Belupo7 Nov · HNLwin 40%
- at HNK Rijeka21 Nov · HNLwin 19%
- vs Dinamo Zagreb28 Nov · HNLwin 20%
NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
- vs NK Osijek31 Oct · HNLwin 40%
- vs Rudes7 Nov · HNLwin 52%
- at HNK Hajduk Split21 Nov · HNLwin 15%
- vs NK Slaven Belupo28 Nov · HNLwin 45%
Each side's next matches on our board after this one. The colour is how strong the opponent is, from easier to harder as on the scale above: its model rating ranked among the teams of that competition, in fifths, so bright red is the top fifth whoever is playing it. The win figure is this side's own chance in that match, which is where venue and its own level come in. A match already on our board links to its own prediction; the rest follow as their week comes up.